The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros on Sunday, May 18, 2025. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The American League West promises to be a wide-open race all year, so every game matters. The Rangers and Astros are both just over .500, and the loser of Sunday's game could leave the series sitting at .500. We'll see a potential future pitching star, Jack Leiter, taking the ball for the Rangers. He's opposed by veteran lefty Framber Valdez.
Find my Astros vs Rangers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Astros vs Rangers Prediction
- Astros vs Rangers picks: Astros Moneyline (play to -120)
My Astros vs Rangers best bet is Astros ML (play to -120). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Rangers Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -142 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +120 |
Astros vs Rangers Projected Starting Pitchers
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | Stat | Jack Leiter (TEX) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.54/4.32 | ERA /xERA | 4.34/4.41 |
| 3.57/3.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.97/4.82 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 7.4% |
| 57.6% | GB% | 39.8% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 101 | Location+ | 89 |
Sean Paul’s Astros vs Rangers Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Flashes of Leiter and a Slumping Offense
The flashes Jack Leiter shows are easy to buy into.
He doesn’t have jaw-dropping numbers, entering Sunday’s action with a 3-2 record and a 4.34 ERA. His peripherals aren’t bad. They don’t signal any crazy regression but don’t show signs of getting significantly better, posting a 4.41 xERA and 3.97 FIP.
The occasional flashes of brilliance don’t quite match the results. Leiter strikes out just 7.9 batters per nine and walks over 4.1 per nine. That’s not a sustainable formula if Leiter wants to be a successful major leaguer.
Scoring has been a cause of concern for Texas all year, so much so that it fired its hitting coach on May 5. The Rangers rank 24th with an 88 wRC+ in May. Things are tougher now, with one of the few consistent bats, Corey Seager, hitting the injured list.
Recently, the Rangers offense has shown good numbers in only one area: power. They rank in the top 10 in MLB with 18 homers this month.
On the flip side, they are near the bottom in baseball with a .291 on-base percentage. Stringing together sustained rallies is a real problem for the offensive-hungry Rangers.
It'll be difficult for the Rangers to shine until Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia start holding their weight in the lineup.
Seager picked up some slack, but his injury puts an emphasis on Semien and Garcia finding their stride.
Also of note: Wyatt Langford is hitting below .200 in May. He largely carried the Rangers lineup through April, but his recent slump further complicates the Rangers' lineup issues.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Trust the Ground Ball King
The Astros have two options to take the mound in the finale. One is Ryan Gusto, who pitched in this spot in the rotation five games ago. The other is the Astros pushing Framber Valdez up a day and throwing him on regular rest thanks to the mid-week day off.
If the Astros can give the ball to a veteran like Valdez in a divisional matchup on regular rest, it's a no-brainer.
Valdez, the ground ball king, is having a bit of a down year compared to last season. He enters this outing with a 3.54 ERA and 3.57 FIP, but I'll always feel comfortable with Valdez due to his elite 57.6% ground ball rate.
The veteran southpaw can easily erase a jam due to a nasty sinker that forces a ton of double plays.
Nothing is different about Valdez's per-nine-inning numbers. He's hovered around an 8.2 K/9 to a 9.6 K/9 throughout his career, and he's at 8.2 this year. He also posts a 2.89 BB/9 and an 0.80 HR/9. The Rangers won't be able to slug against Valdez, which is a conundrum for them.
Houston’s offensive approach is the polar opposite of the Rangers'. While Texas struggles with pushing the line and getting rallies rolling, Houston thrives in this area.
Conversely, the Astros are lean in the power department, ranking in the bottom five in home runs and 19th in isolated power, but top ten in wRC+, BABIP, and bottom three in strikeout rate.
Placing trust in an offense with a .323 BABIP is tough. However, the Astros have a very high-contact lineup and trail just the Dodgers, Tigers, and Cardinals in BABIP during May. That's solid company.
Astros vs Rangers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I have a feeling the Astros will dink and dunk their way to winning this contest.
Leiter is a very fade-worthy pitcher right now, and I'm looking for him to falter after posting the best outing of his career against the Rockies.
The Astros have the lineup advantage, and the pitching matchup also favors them. I'll take the road team here.
Pick: Astros ML (play to -120)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like the Astros moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not interested in the spread.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total for this game.
