Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Pick, Prediction: All Signs Point To the Over (June 20)
AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki. Pictured: Francisco Lindor
- The Mets host the Marlins in the finale of a four-game set.
- There have been plenty of runs scored in two of the first three games of this series, will that continue?
- Tony Sartori shares his best bet below.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||1:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
We have the fourth and final game of this NL East intradivisional series as the New York Mets host the Miami Marlins. There have been eight or more runs scored in two of the first three games of this series.
Will we get another high-scoring affair on Monday, or can the pitching step up in the finale?
Rogers Struggling To Get Outs
The Miami Marlins have experienced many high-scoring games recently. There have been eight or more runs scored in 13 of their past 20 games (65%) and I expect this trend to continue as left-hander Trevor Rogers is slated to take the mound for Miami.
Over 12 starts this season, Rogers is 3-5 with a 5.87 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. There have been eight or more runs scored in each of his past six starts.
Rogers’ metrics suggest positive regression is not coming anytime soon as he possesses a .368 xwOBA, .277 xBA and a .496 xSLG this season. Following Rogers is a fade-worthy bullpen.
Since May 1st, the Marlins’ relief pitching ranks 26th in the league in ERA, 30th in BA, 28th in SLG and 30th in wOBA. Over their past 10 contests, the Marlins are giving up 4.8 runs per game.
Mets Bats Match Up Well vs. Rogers
Like the Marlins, the Mets have been involved in many high-scoring games of late. Over their past 14 contests, there have been eight or more runs scored in 10 of them (71%).
I expect this trend to continue as left-hander David Peterson is slated to take the mound for the Mets. Through nine appearances this season, Peterson is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.
There have been eight or more runs scored in each of his past six starts. However, Peterson should get plenty of run support as the Mets are slated to go against left-hander Trevor Rogers.
Since May 1st, the Mets rank 14th in SLG, 13th in OPS and 14th in wOBA when facing left-handed pitchers at home. Over their past 10 contests, the Mets are averaging 4.5 runs per game.
I am backing the trends in this matchup and going with the over. Both teams are tossing out sub-average starting pitchers who have both seen the over hit in each of their past six starts.
We will most likely depend on the Mets to generate most of the runs in this contest as the Marlins have a terrible bullpen and the Mets have been hitting well against left-handed pitchers. That being said, if Miami can just generate two or three runs, this game should see at least eight total runs.
Pick: Over 8 (-115, play up to -125)
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