Mets vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet the Over With Peterson & Buehler (June 4)

Mets vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet the Over With Peterson & Buehler (June 4) article feature image

Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Walker Buehler.

  • The Mets look to take a game from the Dodgers when they hit the field in Los Angeles on Saturday night.
  • The Dodgers have shut down the Mets two games in a row, but New York may have a better shot this time around.
  • Read on to see Kenny Ducey's top bet for this game.

Mets vs. Dodgers Odds

Mets Odds+150
Dodgers Odds-185
Over/Under8.5 (-120 / +100)
Time10:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

For just the third time all year, the Mets have lost consecutive games.

After six straight, New York has run into some resistance against the best team in the National League, but will that continue on Saturday as the Dodgers go for the series victory?

Let's take a look at this matchup.

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Don't Expect Mets To Be Kept At Bay

New York got a decent outing from Taijuan Walker in a loss on Thursday before Chris Bassitt was once again hit hard in a loss on Friday.

Now, the Mets will look for some strong pitching once again from David Peterson, who carries a 3.03 ERA into this start.

For all the decent outings Peterson has had this season, though, there are plenty of things to be concerned about here for the left-hander. His expected ERA at Statcast is up at 3.97, and his walk rate resides just under 11%.

He's done a somewhat decent job pitching to contact, but his .353 xwOBA isn't nearly good enough to make up for an 18.9% strikeout rate.

Peterson has struggled in recent outings, allowing nine of his 10 earned runs the last three times he's pitched with two homers and eight walks charged to his name.

Offensively, the Mets are still hitting the ball very well. They're fifth in wRC+ and second in contact rate over the last 14 days.

They were scorching the ball in the week leading up to this series, flashing some rare power, but it seems facing the Nationals and Phillies in succession had something to do with that.

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Dodgers Ready to Roll?

The Dodgers have been even better at the plate, ranking third in wRC+ in those last 14 days with a beefy 9.7% walk rate and a low 20.8% strikeout rate.

They're 11th in barrel rate and sixth in hard-hit rate over that span. Los Angeles is also fresh off of a six-run outing in a win over the Mets.

I feel the need to note all those numbers because L.A. was just swept in three games by the Pirates, becoming something of a meme in the process.

Sure, the Dodgers struggled for three days against bad pitching, but on the whole, they've been totally fine at the dish. The back-to-back wins here against a stronger Mets pitching staff is a very encouraging sign, as are the actual plate discipline and contact numbers.

Walker Buehler will get the ball here for L.A., and he's one of the most perplexing pitchers in baseball. His peripherals are great, and he's once again got a strikeout rate over 20%.

With that said, he's yet to return to the dominance we saw in the first half of last season with a 3.22 ERA. The worst thing you can say about Buehler is that he's average in the strikeout and hard-hit departments, but you could do a lot worse.

Mets-Dodgers Pick

The Dodgers should have the clear advantage in the pitching department here, but I'm not sure that means the Mets will be held at bay entirely.

A pitcher who's been reliant on strikeouts at times during his career to mask his issues with hard-hit balls isn't a very good matchup against a Mets team that makes its living by making contact.

I really hate this matchup for Peterson, though, who has had huge issues with command. The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in the league going on multiple years when it comes to walks, and their offense is heating back up.

I see a lot of runs coming between these two teams.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)

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