Mets vs. Giants Betting Preview: Can Bumgarner Continue His Success Against New York?

Mets vs. Giants Betting Preview: Can Bumgarner Continue His Success Against New York? article feature image

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Betting odds: New York Mets at San Francisco Giants

  • Mets moneyline: +105
  • Giants moneyline: -115
  • Over/Under: 7
  • First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets

Go ahead and try googling “Madison Bumgarner” or “Noah Syndergaard” and see the percentage of stories that are about both being traded before MLB’s July 31 trade deadline …

Both pitchers could be making their last starts for their given teams, but on Thursday night in San Francisco, let’s focus on the matchup.

In Bumgarner’s career, he has faced Syndergaard three times, including just six weeks ago.

The Giants are 3-0 in those starts, with Bumgarner holding a 1.29 ERA, allowing just three earned runs in 21 innings pitched against the Mets.

In Bumgarner’s career, he has faced 21 opposing starters three times or more and Syndergaard is his second-most profitable opponent, making bettors $334 on a $100 per game basis.

His most profitable starter? Clayton Kershaw, at a 6-5 record (+$403).

On the other side, Syndergaard has been decent with a 3.26 ERA, allowing seven earned runs in 21.1 innings pitched.

When looking at Bumgarner’s starts against the Mets as a whole, an even bigger advantage floats to the surface.

The Giants are 8-1 in Bumgarner’s nine career starts against the Mets, profiting bettors $676 while beating New York by a whopping 3.7 runs per game.

For Madison, he has performed pretty well against the Metropolitans …

In Bumgarner’s career, he has faced 16 different teams at least five times as a starter and his 1.71 ERA against the Mets is his lowest against any of those teams.

The Mets offense has struggled so much against Bumgarner that its slugging percentage (.265) is just 10 points higher than its on-base percentage (.255).

The Giants have won seven consecutive starts by Bumgarner against the Mets, with their last loss coming back in 2012 — against none other than Jeremy Hefner.

Against both Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom, the Giants are 5-0, beating New York by 3.8 runs per game.

No matter what inning it is, bettors pretty much know what they are getting with Bumgarner.

In his career, he owns a 2.99 ERA in the first five innings. In the 6th inning on, Bumgarner owns a 3.14 ERA, which is almost unheard of to have that small of a gap between the first five innings and second half of the game.

Over the last five seasons, the Giants are 37-14-13 (72.5%) in the first five innings moneyline when Bumgarner starts, profiting bettors $1,267. This makes MadBum the third-most profitable starter in this spot.

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner

Tonight against the Mets, the Giants are receiving 64% of the total betting tickets at the time of writing.

When the Giants are receiving the majority ticket count in Bumgarner’s starts since 2015, they are 29-9-12 (76.3%) at home in San Francisco, profiting bettors $904.

In that span, no starting pitcher has been more profitable to bettors than Bumgarner. In that same time frame, the Giants are 67-50-30 (57.3%) when any other pitcher starts at home with the support of the public — a 19% decrease in win percentage from Bumgarner starts.

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