The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday, April 21. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CINR and MLB.TV.
The Reds are favored at -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+152+ on the run line. The Rays, meanwhile, are -103 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-184) on the run line. The over/under sits at 7.5 total runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Rays Prediction
- Reds vs Rays Pick: Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
My Reds vs Rays best bet is Cincinnati starting pitcher Chase Burns to go over his strikeout total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Rays Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 7.5 +100o / -122u | -116 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 7.5 +100o / -122u | -102 |
- Reds vs Rays Moneyline: Reds -116, Rays -103
- Reds vs Rays Over/Under: 7.5 (-100o / -120u)
- Reds vs Rays Run Line: Reds -1.5 (+152), Rays +1.5 (-184)
Reds vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Chase Burns is one of my favorite pitchers to bet in Major League Baseball, and tonight, I'm taking his strikeout total in Reds vs. Rays.
Burns hasn’t been missing bats like he did during his debut season last year or like many expected coming into the year. In his first two starts this year, he fanned 16 over 11 innings against the Pirates and Rangers.
In his last two outings against the Angels and Giants, he managed just six strikeouts total.
The Rays aren’t an easy team to punch out, but I’m looking for at least a rebound relative to those low recent numbers.
One of the weirdest outliers I've seen this season comes in the form of Burns’ O-Contact Rate. His O-Contact Rate — the percentage of pitches outside the zone that hitters are making contact with — is a ridiculous 58%.
It was 39% a year ago. Even if he weren’t a good pitcher (which he is), a 58% O-Contact Rate is simply not sustainable. It feels fluky.
Reds vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
After two quiet strikeout turns, we’re getting a bit of a discount on Burns tonight. I expect him to bounce back from those recent lows, so I’m siding with the over on his K total.
The best number out there is even money on over 5.5 strikeouts at Caesars, so that's where I'll be looking to invest as of writing.
Pick: Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
