The San Francisco Giants host the New York Mets on April 4, 2026. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets are favored by -115 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are -105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Mets vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Giants Prediction
- Mets vs Giants Pick: Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-149)
Our Mets vs Giants best bet is Clay Holmes to stay under his strikeouts prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Giants Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +149 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -123 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -181 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +102 |
- Mets vs Giants spread: Mets -1.5 (+147), Giants +1.5 (-177)
- Mets vs Giants over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Mets vs Giants moneyline: Mets -115, Giants -105
Mets vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| Clay Holmes (RHP) | Stat | Landen Roupp (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.18/5.36 | ERA /xERA | 0.00/2.24 |
| 5.30/4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 1.85/2.34 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 0.67 |
| 8.7 | K-BB% | 23.8 |
| 66.7 | GB% | 58.3 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 109 | Location+ | 109 |
Mets vs Giants Preview
Action PRO projects New York Mets starter Clay Holmes for just 3.9 strikeouts in his matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight, giving us a solid 12.7% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 4.5 strikeouts.
Holmes fanned five batters in his first outing of the season, going 5 and 2/3 innings against the Cardinals. That was a respectable strikeout total for his debut as a starter, but it came against a St. Louis lineup that has shown more swing-and-miss early in the year.
Today, Holmes will face a San Francisco Giants lineup that has posted one of the lower strikeout rates in the majors so far this season, currently sitting at around 24.3% (ranking them outside the top half of MLB teams in K%). The Giants have emphasized putting the ball in play more consistently this season, with solid contact rates that limit big strikeout games for opposing starters.
Holmes, since transitioning to a full starting role last season, isn't generating the elite whiff rates he showed as a closer. His stuff plays well in bursts, but over multiple innings against a patient, low-K lineup like San Francisco's, the strikeout upside gets capped.
Projections see him likely exiting around the 5-6 inning mark without the volume needed to push past 4.5 Ks.
Let's back the Under 4.5 strikeouts on Clay Holmes tonight against the Giants. The matchup and early-season trends both point to a lower-K outing for the right-hander.
Pick: Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts ( -149, DraftKings)
