Marlins vs Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions
Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer
- The Mets and Marlins get their 2023 seasons underway on Thursday afternoon in Miami.
- It's a battle of NL East aces as New York's Max Scherzer takes on Miami's Sandy Alcantara.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including how to bet it.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds
-105 / -115
-105 / -115
Opening Day 2023 is finally here and what more could you ask for than a stacked Thursday slate. One of the more fun pitching matchups of the day is down in Miami, where Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins welcome in Max Scherzer and the New York Mets.
After a strong start to the year in 2022, the Mets fell apart late, losing the NL East division and eventually falling to the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Round. The Marlins, despite Alcantara’s NL Cy Young-winning season, finished with just 69 wins.
Here’s how to bet this NL East bout headlined by two of the best arms in the league.
Gone are the days of Jacob deGrom opening the season for the Mets. He has since departed for Texas, leaving Scherzer at the forefront of the rotation.
Despite undergoing plenty of change in the rotation in the offseason, the Mets rotation remains a strength. They added defending AL Cy Young Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga to make up for the losses of deGrom and Chris Bassitt. Jose Quintana, though injured, will also make for an excellent fourth starter.
Scherzer takes the mound for the Mets on Opening Day looking to build off an impressive first season in Queens where he posted a 2.29 ERA with strong advanced numbers (2.87 xERA, 10.7 K/9).
Surprisingly, Scherzer never faced the Marlins last season. While he had excellent control and limited batters to a .202 xBA, Scherzer did struggle a bit with barrel rate (8.4, a career low).
The Mets’ bullpen remains its biggest question after Edwin Diaz suffered what’s expected to be a season-ending knee injury. David Robertson assumes closing duties while NY shops the market in hopes of adding additional depth.
Not much has changed on the offensive end. The Mets finished third in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA. There wasn’t much production in the power department aside from Pete Alonso, where N.Y. finished 16th in ISO.
Reigning Cy Young award winner Alcantara takes the mound looking to build off what was an incredible 2022 season.
Alcantara posted a career-best 2.92 xERA and .215 xBA, shoring up his control and becoming a reliable arm that consistently pitched late into games. He led all pitchers in both innings thrown — by more than 20 — and WAR (8.1).
As expected with such a dominant season, Alcantara overperformed slightly. His xFIP (3.29) was a run higher than his actual ERA (2.28) and his hard-hit rate sat in the bottom 50% of all pitchers.
That’s not to say Alcantara won’t replicate the year he had or that his advanced numbers are alarming — in fact, they’re still All-Star-level good. His control has continued to improve drastically year over year, too.
Against the Mets last season, Alcantara threw 27 innings across four starts. He finished with a 3.33 ERA and a .248 batting average against.
On the offensive end, the Marlins’ offense struggled mightily. Injuries played a huge factor, as Jorge Soler and Jazz Chisholm both logged fewer than 300 plate appearances. By year’s end, the Marlins finished 25th in wRC+ and isolated power, and 27th in wOBA.
This is a mixed offense of youthful potential and veterans, a perfect combination behind a talented and improving pitching staff. Jean Segura and Luis Arraez were brought in during the offseason to shore up the infield, with the latter of the two being one of the best pure hitters in baseball.
Arraez hit .316 last year for the Twins and finished in the top three percent of all hitters in strikeouts and xBA. Striking him out is near-impossible and he’s an on-base machine — 11th-best in on-base percentage and totalhits last year — a necessary boost atop the Marlins’ offense.
Mets vs. Marlins Betting Pick
While I have high hopes for the Marlins this season, I am a bit hesitant to back them out of the gate against the Mets here.
Alcantara has been dominant at loanDepot Park, but his underlying numbers do suggest some negative regression. The fact that he also threw 20 more innings than every pitcher in baseball — and 200 the year prior — makes me nervous for his outlook of 2023.
He has been overworked to the max and there were flashes of struggles as the season wound down. In his last eight games of the year, he gave up eight home runs. Alcantara has had mixed results against the Mets lineup that hasn’t changed, too.
If there’s one pitcher I trust given the pitch clock changes and adjusting early on, it’s Scherzer. His numbers have yet to regress despite his 38-year-old age and I’d expect yet another dominant season from the right-hander.
At a near PK and given how this pitching matchup is a near wash, I trust the better offense on Thursday, and that’s the Mets.
I expect the Marlins to find success throughout the season, but this is a long season and one where growing pains are expected. Alcantara is a bit overvalued here, so give me the Mets to bring home a win on Opening Day.
Pick: Mets (-130 or Better)
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