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Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Nola Lead Philadelphia To Victory On Thursday?

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Nola Lead Philadelphia To Victory On Thursday? article feature image
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Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds

Mets Odds +120
Phillies Odds -145
Over/Under 8
Time 6:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Thursday night’s slate features a National League East showdown between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies look to gain ground on the Mets, who just split a four game series at home against the defending World Champion Atlanta Braves.

Realistically, the Phillies may already have too much ground to cover, but a series victory or sweep would get the Phillies back at or over the .500 mark.

The Mets send Taijuan Walker to the mound to start the opener. He’ll be squaring off against Aaron Nola in a battle of who can avoid their bullpen more effectively.

New York Mets: Offseason Additions Paying Dividends

The Mets enter Thursday night’s match up with an 18-9 record and have been a tough match up for all opponents.

New York has a balanced lineup in terms of splits, but it also seems to be cashing in on smart offseason spending as well.

Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha have been huge acquisitions as both have posted a wRC++ greater than 130 this season. Starling Marte has been slumping of late, but all of these acquisitions really complement a lineup that has returned to form.

Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil are the two most notable offensive performers who have bounced back from disappointing 2021 seasons.

The Mets offense has been a great story, but the starting pitching has been equally dominant to start 2022.

Walker is already making his third start against the Phillies. However, he exited his first start after two innings with an injury. He hasn’t allowed a run to the Phillies in over seven innings.

Philadelphia Phillies: Nola Looking to Bounce Back

The Philadelphia Phillies are doing what they were designed to do and that’s hit. They are seventh in MLB in team wRC+ and fourth in runs scored.

Unfortunately, their pitching staff has been disappointing. However, that might have been expected. The Phillies did address their bullpen in the offseason and the peripherals indicate they may be due for positive regression.

The bullpen’s ERA is in the bottom third of the league, but it is just outside of the upper third of the league in FIP. The Phillies acquisitions of high K% and high GB% relievers have really helped the ‘pen become more effective than it was a season ago.

Aaron Nola will take the mound and over the course of his career he has been a very reliable starter at home. However, his career 3.14 ERA and 3.25 FIP at home are heavily influenced by his performance during his peak years.

Through 16.1 innings at home this year, Nola has a 3.86 ERA and a 4.18 FIP, which is fine. I suppose.

Nola struggled in his last home start against the Mets, where he only worked 3 1/3 innings and walked three while surrendering three runs.

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Mets-Phillies Pick

This is a weird game because both pitchers are facing their opponent for the third time this season. In Walker’s case, this is his third consecutive start against the Phillies, a simply bizarre fact.

Nola seemed to improve from his first start and worked seven quality innings in his second start, which may be why the Phillies have the slight edge in the books. Walker did not surrender a run in either of his brief starts, but one would expect some regression on his end. With that said, I very not-confidently say the Phillies moneyline is the play here unless it goes beyond -150.

Pick: PHI ML

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