The Baltimore Orioles host the Miami Marlins on July 12, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Marlins vs Orioles Prediction
- Marlins vs Orioles pick: F5 Under 5 Runs (-115, Play to -110)
My Marlins vs Orioles best bet is on the F5 Under 5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Orioles Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9 -125o / 105u | +135 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9 -125o / 105u | -165 |
Marlins vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Janson Junk (MIA) | Stat | LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.12 / 3.90 | ERA / xERA | 1.57 / 3.24 |
| 2.00 / 3.21 | FIP / xFIP | 2.81 / 3.80 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 0.87 |
| 18.7% | K-BB% | 14.5% |
| 41.1% | GB% | 48.1% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 118 | Location+ | 102 |
Charlie Wright's Marlins vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Revenge game!
Trevor Rogers will get his first shot at his former team after getting traded last season. Rogers has been excellent across five starts this year, posting a 1.57 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. He's been fortunate in the BABIP department, but there are signs that he's regaining his prior form.
Injuries had sapped some of Rogers' velocity in his final year with Miami, with his four-seamer slipping below 92 mph. He's been back up over 93 mph with the heater this season. Rogers' 93 Stuff+, while not great, is his best since 2022.
Rogers faces a Marlins squad that ranks among the bottom three MLB lineups in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties since the start of May.
Heading into July, Janson Junk had never posted a quality start across bits and pieces across five MLB seasons. He's now done it in back-to-back outings.
Junk has been a revelation for Miami, posting a 3.12 ERA on the strength of ridiculous control. He has a tiny 2.8% BB% and an elite 118 Location+. He doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but he's putting the ball exactly where he wants.
Baltimore is a mediocre matchup, ranking 19th in wRC+ against righties over the past 30 days.
Pick: F5 Under 5 Runs (-115, Play to -110)
