The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on August 3, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MNNT.
Read our Twins vs Guardians prediction and MLB over/under pick below.
My Twins vs Guardians Prediction
- Twins vs Guardians Picks: Under 8.5 (-118, BetMGM)
Twins vs Guardians Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +140 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -170 |
Twins vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jose Urena (MIN) | Stat | LHP Joey Cantillo (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 5.40 / 7.72 | ERA / xERA | 4.14 / 3.84 |
| 6.37 / 5.44 | FIP / xFIP | 4.08 / 3.46 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 6.1% | K-BB% | 16% |
| 30.3% | GB% | 43.8% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 106 | Location+ | 102 |
Tanner McGrath’s Twins vs Guardians Preview
This game activated one of our Bet Labs systems, powered by our own Evan Abrams.
Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds targets unders in regular-season MLB games where softer starting pitchers (low strikeout rates, moderate WHIPs) are on the mound in games three or four of a series. By this point in a series, hitters have seen multiple arms, and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity and the winds remain neutral.
With these teams in the middle of the 162-game grind — while winning at a modest clip — the market typically overlooks how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, lower-scoring outcomes.
This system has produced a 14% ROI across 851 games since 2005. The system is also 34-24-3 this season (59% win rate, 12% ROI).
I’m not enthralled to be backing either starting pitcher, but the point of the system is betting on softer starters.
On the bright side, Jose Urena pieced together back-to-back decent outings at Triple-A in late July (7 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 3 BB), while Joey Cantillo is due for some positive regression (4.14 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 3.46 xFIP).
The Twins typically smash left-handed pitching, but they ripped apart the roster at the trade deadline, dealing Carlos Correa, Willi Castro, Ty France and Harrison Bader. Plus, Byron Buxton is still on the IL.
I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Minnesota lineup.
Meanwhile, the Guardians haven’t hit right-handed pitching all season (94 wRC+, 26th).
While I’m worried about Minnesota’s new-look bullpen, I typically trust Cleveland’s relievers.
All in all, there’s plenty of reason to trust the system and bet the Under.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-118, BetMGM)
