MLB Best Bets: 2 Top Picks From Saturday Evening’s Slate, Including Blue Jays vs. Mariners (July 9)
Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Robbie Ray (Mariners)
While there’s only four evening MLB games on Saturday, there’s plenty of intrigue and cash to make.
Arguably the greatest rivalry in sports takes center stage, but we also have two NL West rivals facing off, Clayton Kershaw taking the hill vs. the Cubs and a dominant Jays lineup facing their ex-teammate Robbie Ray.
Our experts have two best bets for two different games below, so be sure to read the piece and lock in your target(s) tonight in MLB.
MLB Odds & Picks
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Tanner McGrath: The Red Sox are staring down the barrel of a four-game sweep at the hands of their biggest rivals, and it’s because of pitching.
I’ve heard this rotation described as a “luckbox,” but instead of regression coming for the Sox, it’s been injuries. Four guys in the regular five-man rotation are on the IL, and Alex Cora has responded by going with a rotation of:
- Nick Pivetta
- Brayan Bello (Rookie)
- Josh Winckowski (Rookie)
- Connor Seabold (Rookie)
- Kutter Crawford (Rookie)
Sadly, there’s too much value today with Boston. The Red Sox are all over Action PRO signals, including Big Money — wherein Sox ML is getting less than 30% of the tickets but over 50% of the handle — Sharp Money and our Projections System.
The Action PRO line for this game is just +117.
Kutter has an ERA north of 5.00, but he’s due for some positive regression (4.25 xERA, 11.52 K/9) and has put together two very solid starts recently against Tampa (0 ER over 5 1/3 IP) and Seattle (0 ER over 5 IP).
The Yankees’ offense is a whole different beast, but don’t forget what this Boston lineup can do. And while Jordan Montgomery has made huge strides, he has a career ERA north of 4.00 against Boston and got lit up for four runs over just 3 1/3 innings against the Sox on April 10.
I’ll be on the Red Sox as long as the line stays above +125.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Tony Sartori: We have the third matchup of this four-game series, as the AL West’s Seattle Mariners host the AL East’s Toronto Blue Jays. Seattle has won each of the first two games of this series, as it continues its torrid run, a trend I expect to continue in tonight’s matchup.
Entering this game, the Mariners have won 14 of their last 17 contests (82%).
On the other side, the Blue Jays have been in poor form, as they’ve lost eight of their last 11 games (73%).
This game is a good spot for both of these trends to continue, as left-hander Ray is slated to take the mound for Seattle. Through 17 starts this season, Ray is 7-6 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
Ray’s metrics are just as strong, as he boasts a .308 xwOBA, .227 xBA and .411 xSLG.
Going against his former team, Ray will look to continue his recent streak of dominant performances.
Over his last 33 2/3 innings pitched, Ray has allowed just three earned runs on 15 hits while striking out 40.
Following Ray is one of the league’s better bullpens. Since June 1, the Mariners’ relief pitching ranks eighth in ERA, second in BA, 13th in SLG and third in wOBA.
One of the public’s favorite clubs to wager on, about 65% of the tickets are on Toronto for this game.
Despite the public being all over Toronto, the line has moved five cents in favor of Seattle since it opened at +110. Ride the streaks and the hotter starting pitcher in this game.
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