MLB Best Bets: 5 Expert Picks for Monday, April 15
Monday's MLB slate is jam packed with 15 games on the card for April 15, and our baseball betting experts have locked in five picks for three of today's matchups, featuring two prop bets and three total predictions.
After looking over today's MLB odds, our experts have identified best bets for Twins vs. Orioles, Rockies vs. Phillies and Reds vs. Mariners.
Read along for our MLB best bets for Monday.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 15
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:35 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 9:42 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Twins vs. Orioles
By Tony Sartori
There have been nine or more total runs scored in each of Baltimore's past five games, a trend that is likely to continue on Monday. First, the lineup boasts a lot of pop as it ranks in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, SLG and home runs.
However, the Orioles could also surrender an equally high amount of runs as left-hander Cole Irvin is slated to get the nod on the mound. Through two starts this season, Irvin is 0-1 with a 8.10 ERA and 1.90 WHIP.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is going with right-hander Louie Varland, who also possesses a terrible stat line to start this season with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP through his first two starts.
Run support should also be in store for Varland, given that this current Twins lineup boasts a .387 xBA, .679 xSLG and .473 xwOBA through 61 career plate appearances against Irvin.
Pick: Over 9 (-102)
Rockies vs. Phillies
Things have not gone particularly well for Cal Quantrill to begin his career in Colorado. Through his first three starts, his ERA is well over seven, he’s given up four homers, and is generating an incredibly low amount of swings and misses.
Quantrill was always someone who drastically overperformed his advanced metrics, but last season it finally caught up with him. He posted a 5.24 ERA, but his expected metrics were actually worse with his xERA being at 5.85 and his xFIP at 5.43.
The problem that Quantrill has run into and why he was always due to implode is because his stuff isn’t great and he has one of the lowest K/9 rates in baseball.
The other problem with Quantrill is he’s someone that is reliant on getting groundballs to be successful — three of his four top pitches are a sinker, split finger, and changeup and he’s only getting around a 40% groundball rate the last two seasons.
Aaron Nola has struggled out of the game and it’s pretty concerning the amount of velocity he’s dropped across the board. Last season, he averaged 92.7 mph on his fastball, but through three starts, he’s down to just 90.7 mph, which is in the sixth percentile amount starting pitchers.
The Stuff+ numbers on his fastball, sinker, and cutter have completely cratered, so in turn his K%, whiff rate, etc. are all at career lows.
This Colorado offense has been no slouch to begin the season, as they are top 10 in baseball in wOBA and hard hit rate, so they should be able to give Nola some problems.
I have 9.6 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 8.5 runs at -110.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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Rockies vs. Phillies
By Cody Goggin
Aaron Nola has not been at his sharpest to this point in the season. Through three starts he sports a 4.50 ERA with an xERA of 5.84 and a FIP of 6.75. In these three starts, Nola has only been able to turn in one quality start, getting to 6 IPs just once.
Nola’s Stuff+ is currently 98, which is down from his mark of 101 last year and ranks 71st of 155 pitchers with 10+ IP this year. Even last year, Nola was closer to a league average starter than he was the ace that he is sometimes portrayed to be.
This season he has struck out three, four, and three batters in his three starts. His total for today is 6.5 and the under on this is being offered as high as +125.
Today he will be taking on the Rockies, who are among the worst offenses in the league. I think that this is giving Nola a boost to his numbers, but I think that this total is over-inflated due to opponent.
My model projects Nola with a median of six strikeouts today with an average of 5.93. This model, which has performed extremely well this year, prices his under at -161, so this difference to the market represents a 17% edge.
This may be a bit overstated, but I would take Nola at under 6.5 strikeouts down to -110.
Pick: Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Rockies vs. Phillies
By John Feltman
The Phillies are currently 26th in runs scored per game, and are hitting .234 as a team. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos are off to sluggish starts, but they get a golden opportunity to turn the corner beginning on Monday evening.
Cal Quantrill will take the ball for the Rockies and currently owns a 23.9 CSW%, which ranks in the bottom barrel of MLB starters. He does not miss bats very often, and he has a 88% zone contact percentage.
The weather is starting to get warmer, and the projected gametime temperature should be sitting in the low 80s. CBP is a hitters paradise in the summertime, and I have a feeling the Phils' bats are going to start coming alive.
We are getting plus money on the Phil's run total tonight and I believe it is a discount due to the current state of affair of the offense.
It is only a matter of time before their offense gets cooking, and they should have their way with Quantrill and the horrific Rockies bullpen this evening.
Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 5.5 (+105)
Reds vs. Mariners
By Ray Monohan
Today's Reds vs. Mariners total has a ton of value.
Two starting pitchers who are huge pieces to this rotation battle it out as Montas and Kirby both have had success over the years.
Montas has got off to a much better start as he owns a 2-1 record with an ERA of just 2.16. He has gone at least five innings in all three games this season, and has at least four strikeouts in all thre of those outings.
Kirby counters him and while he has got off to a slow start, he is should produce a lot of swings and misses against this Reds lineup.
He has tended to pitch much better in Seattle throughout his career and producing swings and misses against an aggressive lineup should come here.
Look for scoring opportunities to be at a premium and for both starting pitchers to limit the damage in a low scoring game.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
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