MLB Best Bets, Picks | Our Top Tuesday Predictions From ‘Payoff Pitch’ (April 9)
Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images. Pictured: Giants pitcher Kyle Harrison.
Another Tuesday in April means another opportunity to take a look at our MLB best bets from Tuesday's episode of "Payoff Pitch."
Action Network's Anthony Dabbundo and Sean Zerillo broke down two picks for Tuesday, including a Coors Field over in Diamondbacks vs. Rockies and a first-five bet for Nationals vs. Giants.
Read on for both breakdowns, and check out the full episode of "Payoff Pitch" below.
'Payoff Pitch' Best Bets for Tuesday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:40 p.m. | Over 11 | |
| 9:45 p.m. | Giants F5 (-155) |
Over 11
8:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Cal Quantrill makes his home debut for the Rockies on Tuesday. His stuff+ sits at 91, and he found a way to get a few whiffs in his last trip out against the Cubs.
But we haven’t even seen him pitch at Coors Field yet, and we are already making jokes about the signing.
In his first nine innings with the Rockies, he has four strikeouts and five walks. He hasn’t been a reliable starting pitcher since 2022 in Cleveland and has already gotten roughed up in both of his starts this season.
The Arizona lineup may end up having the lowest strikeout rate in baseball by the end of the season because they simply don't chase. This is one of the most disciplined lineups in baseball.
Given that Quantrill already doesn’t have good stuff and he's going to get less movement pitching in Coors, you can take a look at some Diamondbacks elevators.
I like Merrill Kelly relative to average pitchers, but a pitch-to-contact guy going to Coors is usually a good bet for the over. Average weather conditions with negligible wind and two pitchers I don’t trust in this setting leads me to over 11 runs.
Giants F5 (-155) vs. Nationals
9:45 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Kyle Harrison is a guy we will continue to bet at home. He's a tremendous flyball pitcher, and that aligns perfectly with Oracle Park.
This guy is built to pitch in the lowest home run park factor in MLB over the past three seasons. I think he's going to continue to have very big home/road splits, and I think we will target him when the wind is blowing at an away park.
He has a high floor. He throws a ton of four-seam fastballs and doesn’t walk a ton of guys.
On the other side is Josiah Gray, whose Stuff+ continues to fall. We have a sufficient sample showing us that Gray is essentially a replacement pitcher.
I think Harrison is far more effective at home and has the clear upper hand in this pitching matchup.
I have this line projected closer to -200 and am happy to bet that up to -180.
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