We have two MLB best bets for Saturday's slate.
Charlie Wright is picking on the Aaron Judge-less Yankees, while Derek Carty is fading a red-hot pitcher in Cincinnati.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:10 | |
  | 7:15 | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Yankees vs Marlins Best Bet
I'll gladly back Eury Perez and the Fish.
Perez finished off an excellent July with five innings of one-run ball against a hot Milwaukee squad. He allowed four earned runs across five starts in the month.
The ERA estimators are having trouble nailing down Perez. He has an awesome 2.68 xERA, a decent 3.85 SIERA, and a mediocre 4.10 xFIP. Ultimately, Perez probably isn't as good as his 3.07 ERA, but the run prevention skills are generally solid.
Cam Schlittler has struggled to find his footing across three MLB starts. He has an ERA close to 5.00 and a 4.75 SIERA to back it up. Schlittler has done a nice job limiting hard contact, but he has an untenable 13.2% walk rate. Lefties have given him big problems so far (.343/.439/.514 slash line, 8:6 K:BB).
Schlittler looks like a pitcher who isn't quite ready for the big leagues.
The offenses are a push. The Yankees rank second in wRC+ and third in OPS and wOBA vs. RHP since the start of July. The Marlins rank fifth in those metrics over that stretch.
But while New York has been slightly better, the absence of Aaron Judge evens the playing field. Miami also has a bunch of lefties to throw at Schlittler.
Pick: Marlins F5 ML
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Braves vs Reds Pick
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 5.71 strikeouts for Burns compared to 7.03 strikeouts implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 79% of the time, resulting in a 41% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $51.43.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Chase Burns Under 7.5 Strikeouts
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