MLB Odds & Best Bets: 3 Wednesday Night Picks, Including Phillies vs. Braves, Angels vs. Dodgers
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels.
- After some stellar afternoon MLB action on Wednesday, our staff turns to the evening slate.
- Our writers came through with three best bets for Wednesday night, including picks for Angels vs. Dodgers and Phillies vs. Braves.
- Read on for all three best bets for Wednesday night's MLB games.
Wednesday's MLB slate had a solid mix of afternoon and evening matchups. Now with the afternoon games out of the way, we turn our attention to the evening.
Our staff came through with three best bets for Wednesday night's MLB games, including picks for Braves vs. Phillies, Red Sox vs. Twins and Dodgers vs. Angels.
Check out all three of our MLB best bets for Wednesday night below — and if you're looking for Wednesday afternoon's best bets, be sure to click here.
Wednesday Evening's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Wednesday evening's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Braves vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
The Atlanta Braves will pitch A.J. Smith-Shawver against Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday.
Atlanta crushes right-handed pitching and should drive Nola out of the game. As a result, the Braves' team total is the line to target.
Nola boasts a 4.66 ERA against a 3.65 xERA, so he will improve, though there's no telling when that will happen. The right-hander has allowed 10 earned runs over his past two starts, and the Braves probably have the best offense he has faced all season. Nola allowed five earned runs over six innings the last time he faced Atlanta.
Atlanta owns a 151 wRC+ with an 18% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate and a .941 OPS off of right-handers in June. The Braves have three hitters with an xwOBA over .400 against righties and six others with an xwOBA over .320.
Now, Philadelphia has a great bullpen. But if the Braves hit Nola like they did the last time, it's hard to see the Phillies not pitching at least one weaker middle reliever to eat some innings.
Take the Braves' team total over 4 (-125), and play it to 5 (-120). This team can flat-out hit the ball.
Red Sox vs. Twins
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the slate for Wednesday is the Boston Red Sox moneyline at +112 against the Twins at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Red Sox find themselves in last place in the American League East, but they still have a better record than the Twins, who occupy first place in the American League Central.
Garrett Whitlock takes the mound for Boston, and he has a 3.91 xFIP in seven starts this year. Whitlock has struck out at least five batters in each of his last three starts, which is good news against a Twins team that has struck out a ton this year. Minnesota’s lineup has a combined 28% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching.
Sonny Gray will take the ball for the Twins. While Gray has had a solid season with a 2.37 ERA, his xFIP sits at 3.70, which means he’s due for regression.
Gray has gone seven innings in just two of his 14 starts this year and hasn’t completed six innings in either of his last two. In his last start, which was also at home, he pitched just four innings against the Tigers.
Boston’s lineup has been hot lately and should have no trouble making Gray work here. I think Whitlock will have a good start with plenty of strikeouts, so I like the Twins here.
Dodgers vs. Angels
The underlying peripherals are really trending in the right direction for Michael Grove, even as his ERA sits at 8.10. His strikeout rate has been below average for the season at 21.9%, but his increase in fastball velocity and improvement in Stuff+ data has led to more whiffs and strikeouts in the last month.
Grove's fastball in his first four appearances of the season averaged 94.1 mph. His last three outings have been 96.7, 95.5 and 95.4. That extra velocity has led to much higher swinging strike rates and 16 strikeouts in 14 innings against the White Sox, Phillies and Yankees in the last month.
Grove's xERA is hardly encouraging at 5.10, but a lot of that is driven by the unsustainably high 2.4 HR/9 that he's allowed this season. All of the projection systems besides The BAT have him between a 4.6-4.8 ERA pitcher, and the market seems to be pricing him worse than that here.
The RotoChamp lineup projection has Chad Wallach behind the plate again for the Angels, Andrew Velazquez at shortstop, Luis Rengifo at third base and Kevin Padlo at first. Although Padlo had solid numbers in Triple-A, all four project as clearly below-average hitters in the back half of the lineup.
Wallach, Velazquez and Padlo all have a projected wRC+ of 78 or lower. That will really hurt any consistent run production for the Angels. With two rested bullpens and an improving Grove, I'd bet under 9 at -120 or better or under 8.5 at -105 or better.