MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Saturday, March 30
Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Seager (left) and Yordan Alvarez.
Our MLB best bets for Saturday include four picks spread across the slate of games, starting at 2:10 p.m. ET and ending with bets on both games in Texas tonight.
Our analysts have picks on Tigers vs. White Sox, Nationals vs. Reds, Cubs vs. Rangers and Yankees vs. Astros.
Here are our MLB best bets and picks for Saturday, March 30.
MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Saturday, March 30
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2:10 p.m. | ||
| 4:10 p.m. | ||
| 7:05 p.m. | ||
| 7:15 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tigers vs. White Sox
By D.J. James
The White Sox have fallen off of a cliff over the past few years, especially on offense. Garrett Crochet looked great in his start, but the Sox only strung together three hits. Now they'll face Kenta Maeda, who's a savvy veteran who has been pretty unlucky in recent years.
Maeda has had a sub-3.80 xERA for several years. His Average Exit Velocity ticked up a bit in 2024, but the White Sox do not hit the ball hard outside Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert. This lineup does not walk either, and its offseason additions are defensive pluses but not much to write home about at the plate.
Detroit has a fine lineup, but, like the White Sox, it's not the team’s best feature. Also like Chicago, there are only a few hitters 00 Mark Canha, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson — it can rely on to deliver in big moments.
The bottom of the Tigers' lineup will struggle and faces White Sox starter Mike Soroka, who pitched well to start his career before injury derailed his successes. Expect him to be an intriguing name in this Sox rotation at full health since he has enough of an arsenal to take down a moderately weak lineup like the Tigers have.
Adding to the White Sox's pitching prowess are the decent options in relief like Tim Hill, Michael Kopech, John Brebbia and Deivi García.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100; Play to 7.5)
Nationals vs. Reds
Patrick Corbin has still somehow found himself on a major-league roster, and I say somehow because he's been washed up for several years.
Over the past three seasons with the Nationals, Corbin has had an ERA over 5.00 and and the last two seasons his xERA has been 6.41 and 6.16. His velocity is gone and he now has some of the least effective pitches in baseball. Corbin mainly throws a sinker, slider and fastball, but all three of those pitches got shelled last season, all allowing an xwOBA over .350. All three also have a Stuff+ rating under 87.
Corbin is also pitching in the most hitter-friendly park outside of Coors Field with the wind blowing out 18 mph to left field. The Reds lineup was 12th in MLB against left-handed pitching last season, so it should have a huge day at the plate.
Starting for Cincinnati will be Hunter Greene, who has some of the most electric stuff in the game. Last season he had a Stuff+ rating of 124, which ranked fifth in the majors. What's impressive is he's done it all with just two pitches: a fastball and a slider. His fastball averages 98.3 mph and completely blows hitters away, while his slider had almost a 40% whiff rate last season. Greene also added a curveball and splitter to his pitch arsenal this offseason, which could make him even more dangerous.
The Nationals offense was pretty mediocre last season and there doesn't appear to have much hope of getting any better this season. Washington had a -17.3 run value against sliders last season and was in the bottom 10 of baseball in xwOBA on pitches above 98 mph.
I have the Reds projected at -208, so I like the value on them here.
Pick: Reds ML -167
Cubs vs. Rangers
By Tony Sartori
Texas hands the ball to left-hander Cody Bradford on Saturday night, and he should be a good fade candidate. He struggled mightily in his debut campaign last year, posting a 5.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through 20 appearances on the mound. Bradford's underlying metrics were just as poor, ranking in the 39th percentile or lower in xERA, Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, Whiff% and K%.
Meanwhile, Chicago is going with right-hander Kyle Hendricks, and he should not necessarily be trusted either. Last season, he ranked in the 19th percentile or lower in xBA, Whiff% and K%. Hendricks also had a 4.13 xERA.
Through 47 career plate appearances against Hendricks, this current Rangers lineup boasts a .273 BA, .455 SLG and .316 wOBA. In fact, both lineups are likely in store for a big game as both teams finished in the top 11 of the league last year in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS and wOBA.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
Yankees vs. Astros
This matchup pits a pitcher I am looking to fade this season against one I am looking to bet on. The Yankees have started the season and this series with two wins, but today is the day to bet Houston.
Hunter Brown is entering his second big-league season and has a ton of talent. He showed promise early last season but ran out of gas down the stretch. Brown pitched to a 3.01 xFIP and 10.63 K/9 rate in the first half of the season, but those dropped to a 4.30 xFIP and 9.78 K/9 rate in the second half. Brown has a strikeout rate and ground ball rate that both rank in the top 25% of the league.
The Yankees signed Marcus Stroman this offseason and despite earning an All-Star nomination with the Cubs, his numbers were less than stellar. Stroman’s 3.95 ERA exceeded his 4.27 xERA and he posted a career-high walk rate. Stroman can’t miss bats and lives off his sinker. Last season, opponents posted a .350 xwOBA against it.
Houston’s top bats — Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman — all smack sinkers. The Astros have been hitting the ball well, but they've run into bad luck to start this season. Houston has the fifth most hits of any team in the league so far yet has managed to score just five runs. It went 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position yesterday and left 11 runners stranded.
I’m buying Brown taking a big step forward in his sophomore campaign and the Houston bats to yield better results on Saturday.
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