MLB Best Bets Monday: Picks & Predictions
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The MLB slate for Monday, April 22, includes 11 games, starting with Athletics vs Yankees in the afternoon and concluding at Oracle Park with Mets vs Giants.
Our baseball betting experts have come through with three MLB Best Bets, featuring a moneyline pick for Blue Jays vs Royals and F5 over/under for Phillies vs Reds.
Check out our MLB Best Bets Monday: Picks & Predictions below.
MLB Best Bets Monday: Picks & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 7:40 p.m. | ||
| 1:05 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Athletics vs. Yankees
By Tony Sartori
New York hands the ball to left-hander Carlos Rodon on Monday afternoon, and he should be a good fade candidate.
While Rodon's 3.66 ERA doesn't seem too troubling, he is a prime regression candidate, ranking in the 37th percentile or lower among MLB pitchers in xERA, xBA and average exit velocity.
He also ranks in the 25th percentile in Whiff rate and 34th percentile in strikeout rate, so we'll fade the southpaw there.
Currently, his strikeout prop returns plus-money on Under 6.5, a number he has yet to surpass through four starts this season.
This total is set that high because Oakland struggles in the strikeout department. However, Rodon has recorded six or fewer punchouts in four of his six career starts against the Athletics.
Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105 or Better)
Phillies vs. Reds
By John Feltman
Ranger Suarez and Hunter Greene are set up for success entering tonight's matchup at Great American Ballpark. Both offenses are red-hot, but these hurlers are primed to stop them in their place.
Suarez is off to a terrific start in 2024, sporting an ERA under 2.00 and a 62% GB rate. He also possesses a 29 CSW%, bad news for a Reds offense that ranks among the bottom-five MLB teams in strikeouts per game.
Meanwhile, Greene is pitching a lot better than his current ERA suggests. He is striking out a ridiculous 14 batters per nine innings pitched, and his hard and medium contact rate is decreasing.
If Greene limits the free passes, I expect him to have ample success through the first half of the ballgame. I think it is a much stronger play to take the F5 Under than the full game, as both of these bullpens rank among the bottom-five units in ERA.
Great American Ballpark is typically a hitter's paradise, which is exactly why it is crucial to target the first half before these awful bullpens throw a wrench into the action.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-125)
Blue Jays vs. Royals
Yusei Kikuchi has been excellent this season, posting a 2.08 ERA and 2.66 xERA with a K/9 rate over 12. He's generating an 11% higher ground-ball rate year over year, specifically by locating his curveball and slider lower in the zone.
But it's still all about Kikuchi's fastball. He throws it about half the time, and he's significantly increased his velocity and Stuff+ rating (118) on the pitch from last season. He's not throwing it as much up in the zone, instead living more in the middle.
Home runs have always been a problem for Kikuchi, posting an HR/FB rate of over 20% across the past three seasons. But balancing his fastball across different parts of the zone while keeping his main offspeed pitches down in the zone has led to fewer home runs.
Brady Singer has been pretty good to start the season, posting a 3.89 xERA. Like Kikuchi, he has drastically improved his ground ball rate with his slider and fastball.
Still, Singer has poor stuff and needs to be excellent with his command to succeed. His Stuff+ rating is 83 across his arsenal through four starts, with his four-seam at 72 and his sinker at 68. His slider still grades out as average, which he throws about half the time, but he's still allowing a .313 xwOBA on the pitch.
There is also a pretty wide discrepancy in the bullpens in the game.
The Royals have one above-average pitcher — their closer, James McArthur, who has a 108 Pitching+ rating. The Royals have a 90 Stuff+ rating as a bullpen, ranking dead last in baseball by a mile.
I have the Blue Jays projected at -142, so I like the value on them at -110.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-110)
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