MLB Best Bets: Picks & Predictions for Monday (6/10)

MLB Best Bets: Picks & Predictions for Monday (6/10) article feature image
Credit:

Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Cease.

There are only seven MLB games on Monday, June 10, but our staff has still found two MLB Best Bets.

Check out our favorite side for Orioles vs Rays and our best prop prediction for Athletics vs Padres.

MLB Best Bets: Picks & Predictions for Monday (6/10)

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Monday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
9:40 p.m.
6:50 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Orioles vs. Rays

Monday, June 10
6:50 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Rays ML (+135)

By Sean Zerillo

Since returning from an IL stint (due to a leg bruise from a line drive) on May 22, Ryan Pepiot ranks ninth in Stuff+ (119) among 132 starting pitchers.

Pepiot's season-long stuff+ figure (117, 11th) aligns with Corbin Burnes, who offers better command (105 vs. 99 Location) and a superior profile (110 vs. 105 Pitching+).

The expected ERA (xERA) for both pitchers falls in a similar range — 2.74 for Burnes and 2.87 for Pepiot. Burnes has a low BABIP (.252) and a high strand rate (81.5%) compared to his career averages (.275 and 75.5%, respectively). Pepiot has always carried a low BABIP (.220 vs. .231 career), but he's been unlucky with runners on base (66.5% strand rate vs. 81.6% career).

Between the pair, Pepiot has the superior strikeout rate and strikeout minus walk rate (21.1% vs. 17.5%), but Burnes has a higher called-strike plus whiff rate (29.8% vs. 29.4% CSW%) and limits hard contact by keeping the ball on the ground (50% vs. 32% ground-ball rate; career 0.94 vs. 1.31 HR/9).

Pepiot offers immense upside as he has five pitches that rate 114 or better (a high of 141 on his curveball), according to Stuff+. If he harnesses the command and optimizes his pitch mix, Pepiot will become one of the best pitchers in the American League, and the Rays could have a scary rotation for 2025.

Even though Burnes is currently the second choice for AL Cy Young, the talent gap between these pitchers isn't as substantial as you might expect.

Pick: Rays ML (+135) | Play to ML (+123)

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Athletics vs. Padres

Monday, June 10
9:40 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Dylan Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+125)

By Tony Sartori

San Diego hands the ball to right-hander Dylan Cease, and he should be a good candidate to back.

Through 13 starts this season, Cease boasts a 3.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. But he's due for even further positive regression, given that the right-hander boasts a 3.28 xERA and .213 xBA.

Specifically, we are going to back Cease in the strikeout prop market as he ranks in the 75th percentile among qualified pitchers in chase rate, 93rd percentile in whiff rate and 88th percentile in strikeout rate.

Yes, 8.5 is a super high number to hit, but I'm not worried about that considering his opponent. Through 48 combined career plate appearances against Cease, this current Athletics lineup possesses a fade-worthy 31.3% strikeout rate and 34% whiff rate.

This season, the A's have the league's second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Pick: Dylan Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+125) | Play to 8.5 (+115)



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