MLB Best Bets Tuesday: 5 Prop Picks & Predictions

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There are 16 MLB games scheduled on Tuesday, May 28, including a doubleheader between the Dodgers and Mets.

Action Network's baseball staff has five MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, including prop picks for Grayson Rodriguez and Kevin Gausman, plus over/under and moneyline predictions for Cardinals vs Reds, Royals vs Twins and Diamondbacks vs Rangers.

Continue reading below for our Tuesday MLB Best Bets.

MLB Best Bets Tuesday: 5 Prop Picks & Predictions

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
6:35 p.m.
6:40 p.m.
7:40 p.m.
7:40 p.m.
8:05 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Red Sox vs. Orioles

Tuesday, May 28
6:35 p.m. ET
Grayson Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)

By Tony Sartori

Baltimore hands the ball to right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who is putting together a strong sophomore campaign.

Through eight starts, he is 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Rodriguez's biggest strength is his strikeout prowess. He ranks in the 80th percentile among qualified pitchers in whiff rate and in the 76th percentile in strikeout rate.

Currently, his strikeout prop is at 6.5 at plus money. The right-hander has surpassed six Ks in three of his past four starts.

His success should continue against Boston, a team that possesses a fade-worthy 25% strikeout rate and 29.4% whiff rate through 28 combined career plate appearances against Rodriguez.

This season, the Red Sox rank 25th in the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Rodriguez only recorded five punchouts against Boston in their latest meeting on April 11, but that is why we are catching +105 on a line that this pitcher can easily eclipse.

Pick: Grayson Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105 | Play to +100)

Cardinals vs. Reds

Tuesday, May 28
6:40 p.m. ET
Under 9.5 (-115)

By D.J. James

Andrew Abbott has been stellar for the Cincinnati Reds this year, sporting a sub-three ERA and expected ERA.

He isn't allowing nearly as much hard contact this year. He hasn't thrived by keeping the ball on the ground, but he walks fewer than 7% of batters.

His opponent will be Kyle Gibson and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Gibson has been the recipient of good fortune with a sub-4.00 ERA despite a 5.54 xERA. However, he ranks in the 80th percentile in groundball rate, and the Reds hit a ton of groundballs.

In the last month, the Reds have posted a 72 wRC+ and a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, both marks ranking last among MLB lineups during the stretch.

The Cardinals are comparably horrible against lefties, with a 71 wRC+ against the side over the past month.

Both teams have been solid in the bullpen over the past month. The Reds have a 3.66 expected FIP with a sub-9% walk rate and 26% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a 3.81 relief expected FIP during the stretch.

Needless to say, this game will likely end in a pitcher’s duel with relatively decent starters and relievers against porous lineups.

Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) | Play to 8.5 (-110)

Royals vs. Twins

Tuesday, May 28
7:40 p.m. ET
Royals F5 ML (-140)

By John Feltman

The Royals were shut down by Joe Ryan on Monday afternoon, but that is nothing out of the ordinary.

The good news is that they have a quick turnaround and will send their ace, Cole Ragans, to the mound on Tuesday.

For my money, Ragans is a top-10 pitcher in baseball and his 3.34 ERA does not do him justice. He is averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings, but his walks are hurting his ERA (three per nine innings).

Minnesota's offense has hit a lousy .179 against Ragans in 29 at-bats, and I don't expect that to change on Tuesday. The best-case scenario for the Twins is if Ragans' control is out of sorts early, and they'll have to score a couple of cheap runs.

Another big reason to like the Royals is because of Minnesota starting pitcher Simeon Woods-Richarson. He enters with a 2.57 ERA on the season, but the metrics suggest it should be nearly double that (4.35 expected FIP). He's striking out only seven batters per nine innings and doesn't miss many bats. It's safe to say that the regression monster is looming over his shoulder.

Kansas City's offense is slumping, but I expect them to take advantage of the good matchup and provide Ragans some run support. If Ragans is on his A-game, we may only need 1-2 runs from the Royals early to feel comfortable to cash this first-half wager.

Pick: Royals F5 ML (-140)

Blue Jays vs. White Sox

Tuesday, May 28
7:40 p.m. ET
Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)

By Cody Goggin

Kevin Gausman has not been his usual self this season.

He currently has a 4.47 ERA and 4.89 expected ERA — he hasn't posted an ERA over four since 2019. His fastball velocity has dipped from the 62nd percentile to the 46th percentile, losing nearly a tick on average from last season.

His 97 Stuff+ mark this year ranks 59th out of 126 pitchers with 40-plus innings, a huge decline from his 105 mark last year.

The White Sox offense is bad by most metrics and Gausman should be able to get back on track against them, but they don’t strike out as much as you would think with their general level of ineptitude. Chicago strikes out 23.4% of the time, just the ninth-highest mark among MLB lineups.

Gausman has only exceeded six strikeouts twice in ten starts this year. My model projects Gausman for 4.97 strikeouts with a median outcome of 5.00, so I show good value on under 6.5 Ks.

I think Gausman can have a strong game against the White Sox, but I think we will see more balls in play than this total would indicate, as it is predicated on what Gausman's stuff used to be and not what it has been to this point in the season.

Pick: Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150 | Bet to -170)

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers

Tuesday, May 28
8:05 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks ML (-120)

By John Feltman

The Arizona Diamondbacks find themselves with a 25-28 record entering the road matchup with the Texas Rangers.

It's been a head-scratcher of a season for the Snakes thus far, as they own a +3 run differential and have a losing record to show for it.

The Snakes rank eighth among MLB lineups in runs scored per game and find themselves in a juicy matchup against Rangers starter Dane Dunning. Dunning's strikeout numbers are as high as they have ever been, but he is still walking four batters per nine innings.

Brandon Pfaadt gets the ball for the Snakes, and his FIP suggests that he has been unlucky thus far. He's starting to blossom into a steady big-league starter.

The biggest mystery in baseball thus far is Corbin Carroll's performance. Carroll stormed into the big leagues last season with a phenomenal year, but he has yet to get going in the 2024 campaign.

With no production from Carroll, the Snakes should still be in a better position than they currently are, so anything they get from him moving forward would be considered a bonus.

The Rangers have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, so I'd expect the Snakes to have ample opportunities to put up runs on the board once Dunning exits.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120)

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