For Monday, June 23, I'm on four MLB home run props: Adolis Garcia, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ketel Marte and Seiya Suzuki.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday 6/23
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 2:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for June 23
Adolis Garcia (+525)
at Orioles (SP: LHP Trevor Rogers)
Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has been good at suppressing power this season, but he’s done it in a small sample size, and I don’t believe that trend will continue.
Rogers has allowed 1.10 home runs per nine innings pitched to right-handed hitters in his career, but looking at his fly-ball and hard-contact allowed numbers, he’s likely a plus-matchup for right-handed power bats.
The weather in Baltimore is expected to be fantastic for hitting, with temperatures in the high 90s.
Adolis Garcia hasn’t hit many home runs this season, but looking at the underlying metrics (52% fly-ball rate, 38% hard-contact rate), he’s due for some positive regression.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +425.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+360)
at Mets (SP: RHP Paul Blackburn)
Ronald Acuna Jr. has looked awesome since returning from injury, hitting eight home runs in 27 games behind a ridiculous 18.3% barrel rate.
Mets starting pitcher Paul Blackburn hasn’t allowed many home runs this season, but he’s historically been a solid matchup for right-handed power hitters (career 1.42 HR/9 allowed).
The weather in New York should be great for hitting, with temperatures in the mid-80s and double-digit breezes blowing out toward center field.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop under +300.
Ketel Marte (+380)
at White Sox (SP: RHP Shane Smith)
Ketel Marte is having a career year, with 13 home runs in 15 games behind the highest barrel rate of his career.
The matchup for Marte isn’t bad against White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith, who hasn’t allowed many home runs this season but is due for plenty of negative regression (6% HR/FB rate allowed).
The weather should be ideal for hitting, with temperatures in the low 90s and cross-field winds.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +330.
Seiya Suzuki (+400)
at Cardinals (SP: LHP Matthew Liberatore)
Seiya Suzuki has been one of MLB’s best hitters this season, with 20 home runs across 73 games — he hit two on Sunday.
The matchup against Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore is OK, as the lefty has allowed 1.21 home runs per nine innings pitched against right-handed hitters in his career.
The weather should be great for hitting, with temperatures in the 90s and wind blowing out toward center field.
I make the fair odds ont his home run prop around +350.
