For Saturday, June 21, I'm all over the Mariners vs Cubs game for my MLB home run props as the conditions are favorable for Cal Raleigh, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Randy Arozarena. I also like the odds for Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz (against the Guardians).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets for Saturday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Saturday 6/21
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 2:20 p.m. | |
| 2:20 p.m. | |
| 2:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for June 21
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+265)
vs. Mariners (SP: RHP Emerson Hancock)
I'm betting nearly everyone with a pulse in this game because I don't know if I've ever seen such good hitting conditions in my life.
Wrigley Field is probably the most wind receptive ballpark in the league and the wind is howling out to center at 21 mph. The temps are in the low 90s and the ball is going to be flying with routine fly balls potentially turning into home runs.
Mariners starter Emerson Hancock is an above-average matchup for power hitters, with above-average fly-ball rates to both sides of the plate and low strikeout numbers.
I have the true odds on PCA under +200 making this a great EV bet.
Cal Raleigh (+165)
at Cubs (SP: RHP Cade Horton)
Cubs starter Cade Horton grades out as an above-average matchup for HRs with above-average fly-ball rates.
I don't know if I've ever bet a line this low, but Cal Raleigh still has value in this spot.
The Mariners' catcher is coming off a huge game in the series opener in which he went 3-for-4 with two home runs.
Randy Arozarena (+350)
at Cubs (SP: RHP Cade Horton)
Randy Arozarena is another one (of many) Mariners I'm betting on today. He only has eight homers on the season, but he's in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit percentage and also above average in average exit velocity and barrels.
I have the true odds on Arozarena nearly 100 points lower.
Note: These are just three of seven home run picks I made for this game — you can check out the others over at Scores & Odds.
Nick Kurtz (+450)
vs. Guardians (SP: RHP Luis L. Ortiz)
Athletics rookie Kurtz has been on an unreal tear recently with five home runs in his last six games, and there's a good chance that he continues mashing tonight.
The matchup against Guardians right-hander Luis L. Ortiz is a great one as Ortiz has some of the largest splits of any pitcher in the league — he allows a ton of bombs to lefties while limiting power to righties.
I have the true odds on Kurtz nearly 100 points lower.
