MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds (Wednesday, August 12)
Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan McBroom.
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
|Royals Odds||+102 [BET NOW]|
|Reds Odds||-120 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||10 (-108/-113) [BET NOW]|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
The Kansas City Royals will look to salvage a split in their two-game series with the Cincinnati Reds. Yesterday, Kansas City rallied to tie the game with two runs in the eighth before losing 6-5 in extra innings.
I’ve been impressed with this Royals team, which has shown grit and fight throughout the season. Kansas City arrived in Cincinnati fresh off of a four-game sweep of the division leading Minnesota Twins. With a -5 run differential allowed, the Bill James Pythagorean Expectation projects the Royals should have a higher win percentage (47%) than it currently does (41%).
The Reds will hand the ball to Wade Miley for just his second start this season. Miley hasn’t pitched since July 27 when he couldn’t get through the second inning after allowing six runs (five earned) on four hits and two walks. Miley was then placed on the IL shortly after that start with a strained left groin.
Groin injuries are tricky, and it’s worth wondering if Miley is returning to play too soon. Now, he’ll face a Royals team that is hammering lefties this season. In 127 at-bats, the Royals are hitting .307 with a .472 SLG along with four home runs and 18 RBI’s.
I’m not sure how many innings the Reds can expect from Miley in just his second start, but I’d bank on the Reds’ horrendous bullpen to shoulder several innings in relief of Miley. Cincinnati’s bullpen is 1-4 this season and has the second-worst ERA (7.77) in all of baseball. They’ve also given up the third-most home runs (14) thus far this season.
Kansas City Royals
Brad Keller will get the start for the Royals in the series finale against the Reds. Keller made his first start of the season on Aug. 6 when he went five innings without surrendering a run against the Chicago Cubs. At just 25 years of age, Keller has already made 49 starts for the Royals and he’s 17-20 with a 3.62 ERA for his career.
This will be his first start against the Reds, but he has surrendered just two hits in 17 combined plate appearances against their current lineup. Reds slugger Nick Castellanos has the only two hits over 11 at-bats with no home runs, a .167 OBP and .273 SLG. The lack of familiarity with most of the hitters in the Reds lineup should be something that Keller can take advantage of in this game.
What I’m Betting
The Royals opened around +123 and BetMGM now offers them at +100 at time of writing. I still think this is a worthwhile play particularly if you can avoid the juice and get them at even money.
I’m fading Miley because I don’t think he can go that long in this game coming off a groin injury. Furthermore, I have no problem taking my chances against this dreadful Reds bullpen.
I would play Kansas City all the way down to -110 but I won’t look to give the books anything more than 10 cents on the vig.
For this game, you’ll be rewarded if you’re able to shop around for the best number. I’ll gladly back the Royals to make it five wins out of their last six games.
Royals ML (+102, play down to -110)