Thursday brought us the dreaded reverse sweep, one day after a sweep in the right direction.
This week, we've got one more chance to tip the scales in our favor on Friday.
I have three MLB NRFI picks for Friday, May 2, including a familiar half-unit sprinkle.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 2, 2025
Rays vs. Yankees NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. Max Fried
I've hit this bet twice this week, so I'm more than comfortable returning to the well one more time.
With Aaron Judge at the top of the order, the Yankees' first three hitters will always project for the bulk of their run production. He has an absurd 262 wRC+ on the season, the best in the majors.
It's become hard to pitch around Judge, though.
Directly after him in the order is Ben Rice, MLB's eighth-best hitter by wRC+, followed by Paul Goldschmidt, the Majors' 21st-best.
With the Rays' Ryan Pepiot struggling a bit this year and favorable hitting weather in New York, we've got another perfect setup for some early Yankees offense.
Another option is the Yankees' first-inning moneyline (best odds of +220), but it's not a big enough price adjustment for my taste.
Royals vs. Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Michael Wacha vs. Dean Kremer
This game has a 9.5-run total, much of which is driven by Dean Kremer's awful performance this season.
He has an ERA of 7.04 that jumps to 7.50 his first time through the order and has allowed a first-inning run in four of his six starts.
While the Royals' offense is statistically one of the worst against righties so far, they've started to turn it around and have won nine of their past ten games with some solid offensive performances.
Bobby Witt Jr. at the top of the lineup is a significant threat, with other solid hitters around him.
The Orioles have been a top-five team against righties this season, even with lefty shortstop Gunnar Henderson underperforming.
Meanwhile, Kansas City's Michael Wacha is solid but unspectacular.
Throw in weather that boosts home runs by 24% per Weather Edge, and we get a solid all-around projection.
Tigers vs. Angels NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Jose Soriano
On one side of this matchup, we have the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal, taking on a team with a collective 59 wRC+ against lefties that ranks 29th among MLB lineups.
There's minimal risk from the Angels here.
The trickier projection is on the Detroit side.
Our current lineup projection has Detroit with three left-handed hitters at the top of the lineup, all of whom hit righties well.
However, I'd be surprised if A.J. Hinch rolled that lineup out, given the matchup problems it would create if the Angels went to a southpaw reliever.
That means we'll probably see a slightly weaker lineup than currently listed against Soriano. He has a 4.50 ERA but better underlying metrics. His first-time-through-the-order ERA is also just 3.00, so that's worth taking the risk on today.
