MLB Odds & Best Bets: 2 Picks for Wednesday Evening, Including Marlins vs. Cardinals & Braves vs. Phillies (June 29)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Sandy Alcantara.
- It's been a fun day of baseball, with eight games already starting — and there are still seven after the lights come on.
- Our staff is eyeing two games — Braves vs. Phillies and Marlins vs. Cardinals — on Wednesday night's slate.
- Check out both breakdowns below, including a bet for each matchup.
Eight games went off when the lights were off. But now the lights are on, and we have seven more showdowns coming our way, including Braves vs. Phillies and Marlins vs. Cardinals.
BJ Cunningham and Jules Posner have a bet for each of those games, including a play on the total and a moneyline bet. Check out both breakdowns below, and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more MLB action.
MLB Odds & Picks
Braves vs. Phillies
Brad Cunningham: Kyle Wright has been outstanding for the Braves this season and is starting to blossom into a legit MLB starter. Through 14 starts, he’s posted a 3.39 xERA, 3.22 xFIP and 9.74 K/9 rate.
He’s a unique pitcher in the fact that he goes to his curveball more than any other pitch (31.9% of the time, per Baseball Savant). That’s good for this play because only three players in the Phillies lineup have a positive run value against curveballs, and one of those players is Bryce Harper, who’s out for an extended period of time.
Also, the Phillies are quite terrible versus right-handed pitching. Only two hitters in their lineup have a wOBA over .330 — Harper and Jean Segura, who is also out.
Ranger Suarez has been pretty average, posting a 4.15 xERA. To be honest, this isn’t a great matchup for him considering the Braves are third in wOBA against left-handed pitching and have a +9.6 run value against sinkers, which Suarez goes to 47.6% of the time.
However, the Phillies’ bullpen is due to positively regress, especially with Jose Alvarado returning from injury.
I have only 7.52 runs projected for this game, so I love the value on under 9 runs at -112 and would play it up to -125.
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Alcantara’s been dealing lately and returns to face the franchise that drafted him originally. It seems that this is a narrative that motivates Alcantara, as he owns a 0.99 career ERA against the Cardinals.
The Marlins are also looking to avoid their second sweep of the year in a three-game series, but their offense has really struggled of late. They rank 28th in team wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past three weeks.
However, Andre Pallante is on the hill for the Cards, and he has been outperforming his peripherals so far in 2022. Therefore, he could be a regression candidate against the Marlins tonight.
The Cardinals also used some of their better bullpen arms last night, so they may have to turn to less reliable options if the game is close.
The Marlins enter as favorites on the moneyline and sit at -120 odds at most books.
That’s a fair price, but with Alcantara on the mound, this could be played to the -150 threshold — especially considering the volatility of the Cardinals’ pitching situation today.