MLB Odds, Betting Predictions: 7 Best Bets From Tuesday’s Slate, Including Mariners vs. Blue Jays, Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers (May 17)
Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
- There's a ton of value on the board today with 18 games spread across Tuesday.
- Our analysts are on six of those MLB games, with seven bets total to recommend.
- Continue reading for full analysis and our betting picks from Tuesday's Major League Baseball slate.
Inclement weather has treated us to an absolutely loaded MLB slate on Tuesday. A whopping 18 games are on the schedule, including doubleheaders in White Sox-Royals, Cardinals-Mets and Diamondbacks-Dodgers.
So many games to choose from means so many opportunities to cash in on some pristine value, and our analysts are all over it. We’ve got bets on six different games tonight, with seven bets total.
Here are our best bets from Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Doug Ziefel: Going against the Jays at home is a scary proposition as balls seem to fly off their bats in the Rogers Center. However, their bats may be very quiet as the emerging Logan Gilbert will be on the mound for the Mariners. Gilbert has proven to be one of the best young right-handers in the majors as he enters with a 3.32 ERA and has a 27.5% strikeout rate.
Even if the Jays are able to get to Gilbert, the Seattle lineup should give him plenty of support in this one. Jose Berrios has been dreadful thus far. He’ll enter with a 5.82 ERA, and on top of that, he is in the bottom ten percent of all qualified starters in every expected statistic.
On the other hand, the Mariners have quietly been a top-10 lineup as they are eighth in the majors in wRC+.
Look for the Mariners to even the series tonight. Play to +115.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Kenny Ducey: We were treated to some offense on Monday night when the Red Sox and Astros combined for nine runs in a fun, back-and-forth affair. Tuesday should bring us a similarly-thrilling game.
That’s because Jose Urquidy is on the hill — and when he pitches, you hear the constant thumping of his incredibly hittable fastball making contact with the barrel of the bat. The right-hander has pitched to a ridiculous 48.5% hard-hit rate and 12.4% barrel rate to go along with a .473 xwOBA on contact — all firmly in the bottom-fifth of the league. I used to think this guy stunk, but he was never truly this bad.
The Urquidy fastball has been downright ugly; he’s allowed a .292 average on that pitch with a somehow-worse .350 expected batting average. The bottom line here is he should be shelled by a Boston team which is quietly in the top 10 in wRC+ over the past week.
On the other side of things, Nathan Eovaldi has pitched to an identical 12.4% barrel rate, giving up home runs left and right. His 4.39 xERA tells the story of what’s been a so-so start to the season, and against a Houston team which is fourth in expected wOBA this year and first in wRC+ over the past week he, too, should falter. Back both offenses.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Charlie DiSturco: The Los Angeles Angels look to bounce back from last night’s loss and send Reid Detmers to the mound fresh off his no-hit bid of the Tampa Bay Rays. Opposite him will be southpaw Taylor Hearn, who has been quite a wreck in the early going of 2022.
Despite entering Tuesday night giving up just two runs over his last 10 innings, Hearn’s xERA (5.97) still sits over a half-run higher than his actual ERA. Opponents have a .293 xBA against the left-hander, who ranks in the bottom-three percent of barrel rate.
That means opponents are making plenty of hard contact and are consistently posing a threat against Hearn. Outside of his fastball, no other pitch has been effective through the first month and the half of the season, as all other pitches have an xBA of .315 or higher.
While many may be blinded by Detmers’ no-hit bid last week and he’s around the league average in most metrics, I think the Angels have the upper hand in the first half on Tuesday night.
The Rangers’ offense does see left-handed pitching better, but their offense is not on the level of the Angels, who rank inside the top 10 in wRC+ over the last 14 days. And there’s a clear advantage on the mound in favor of Los Angeles due to Hearn’s awful advanced metrics.
I would back the Angels through the first five innings on Tuesday night up to (-130).
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
DJ James: Alex Cobb is one of the most complete pitchers on the San Francisco Giants. His peripherals are off the charts, and he faces an ailing Colorado Rockies lineup on Tuesday night. Chad Kuhl will go for the Rockies. He is more of an average pitcher.
Cobb may only have a 3.98 ERA, but his xERA is one of the best in baseball at 1.44. This ranks in the 99th percentile. He has struck out opponents at a 31.5% rate. He is about average when issuing walks on the season, but this is one of his only concerns. He has not allowed hard contact at all (85.5 mph average exit velocity), and opponents hold a xSLG of only .204 against him.
However, the angle here is how each team has performed lately against right-handed pitching. San Fran has a 108 wRC+ against right-handers in May, while the Rockies are one of the worst in the league at 77. The Giants are also elite this month when getting to first base via the walk. They have a 13.6% clip this month.
Take the Giants at -155 and play to -170. If you find an alternate line of -1 or feel confident in the spread, that should be safe, too.
Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
Jules Posner: This pick is based on a confluence of factors. However, I must warn you, that today’s slate is funky.
At any rate, the Minnesota Twins have been the fourth-best offense on the road vs RHP over the past two weeks, but they are heading into a poor run scoring environment. Although they are adept at creating scoring opportunities, it is hard to generate a lot of offense at O.Co Coliseum.
Yes, the A’s are the worst offense at home against RHP over the past couple of weeks, but they are facing Dylan Bundy, who has been hittable on the road so far this season. Over 15 road innings, Bundy has a 9.60 ERA and a 5.23 FIP. While Oakland’s offense isn’t prolific, this could be a good opportunity to jump out to an early lead.
James Kaprielian is on the hill for the A’s and he was perfectly adequate at home. He is going to have to be more than adequate against the Twins’ offense. He did just that on his May 7th start in Minnesota where he threw 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball while striking out seven.
This isn’t as much of a full backing of Kaprielian as it is a fading of Bundy. There seems to be just enough here to make the Oakland A’s moneyline worth a shot in plus money as the underdogs. In a weird slate of MLB games, this one seems to be one of the less funky matchups at a decent value. As long as the A’s are in plus money, they’re worth a shot.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (G2)
Sean Zerillo: I have consistently generated CLV betting against Tyler Anderson this season. He’s not a bad pitcher. In fact, his expected metrics are favorable (3.3 xERA, 3.95 xFIP, 3.49 SIERA). Still, the market has consistently moved against him.
Meanwhile, the market has consistently moved toward Merrill Kelly (3.39 xERA, 3.38 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA), who is, at worst, a comparable pitcher to his opponent. Projections systems prefer Kelly (projected FIP range 4.21-4.3) to Anderson (4.69-4.92) significantly.
At best, I could set the Diamondbacks around +140 in this matchup. Placing the starters on level terms, I set the line at +152 (39.7% implied). I bet Arizona’s opening line at +205 (32.8% implied).
Since this morning, the number has dropped substantially, but I would continue to bet their line down to +166, at roughly a two percent edge compared to my projection.
Moreover, you can add some full game spread (+1.5) to around -118 at a comparable edge.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (G2)
|Over 7.5 (-117)|
Michael Arinze: The Dodgers rotation currently lacks some depth with Clayton Kershaw and Andrew Heaney both on the IL. That means they’ve needed to juggle their pitchers and rely more on their bullpen to eat up innings. This has been an early stress test for the Dodgers as their pitching staff has a 5.00 ERA over the past seven days. It’s worth noting that overall, Los Angeles ranks second this season with a 2.77 ERA.
Los Angeles is 3-4 in its past seven games yet still maintains a half-game lead over San Diego in the NL West. If not for the Dodgers’ offense, they would likely be looking up to the Padres in the division. The Los Angeles lineup is scoring 5.85 runs per game over this same period. It’s almost like there’s been a mental switch as Dodgers’ hitters know they need to slug their way to victory, given their pitching woes.
After a 15-5-1 start to the under this season, the over is now 8-2-1 in the past 11 games for Los Angeles. On Tuesday night, the Dodgers will host a Diamondbacks (18-18) team that’s been a bit of a surprise after opening with a projected win total of just 66 games. Over the past 14 days, Arizona ranks 16th with an above-average wRC+ value of 103.
Even with the undefeated Tyler Anderson (3-0) getting the start for Los Angeles, I think the Arizona lineup will fancy taking their hacks against him. After all, the current roster has a .318/.360/.434 line against the left-hander in 63 at-bats. As for the Dodgers, I can’t see Diamondbacks’ starter, Merrill Kelly, slowing the Dodgers down. At 3-1, Kelly’s off to a flying start, but after posting a 3.58 SIERA last year, we should see some regression to the mean.
The total is 5-0-1 to the over in the Dodgers’ past six games, and the Diamondbacks are on a 7-0 run to above as road underdogs. I think this total is a tad short, so I’ll look to play the over of 7.5 runs for a half-unit. However, I would probably pass on the game if it got to 8.
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