MLB Odds, Betting Picks, Predictions: 3 Best Bets For Saturday (April 30)
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- Underdogs, totals, run lines and more are showing value tonight in MLB.
- Our analysts have keyed in on three games from the slate for their betting recommendations.
- Continue reading for full analysis and our best bets for Saturday night in Major League Baseball.
It’s another Saturday in Major League Baseball and that means we have 15 games spread out across the day.
While there’s plenty of action this afternoon, our analysts have focused on the evening slate, with three picks, including Padres vs. Pirates, Yankees vs. Royals and Reds vs. Rockies.
Here are our three best bets from Saturday’s MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
DJ James: This pick is more of a fade of Sean Manaea than anything.
Manaea ranks in the 37th percentile in average exit velocity versus JT Brubaker’s 46th percentile. Brubaker also holds an xERA of 3.87 versus Manaea’s 3.47. It is not much different.
The Pirates have about a league-average wRC+ at 96. They also have four batters with a 90 mph or higher average exit velocity. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ben Gamel, and Michael Chavis also each have a .400+ xwOBA.
The Padres only have three batters over 90 mph in exit velocity against righties this season and four over .350 xwOBA.
The Pirates also have a solid bullpen with a 3.90 ERA. Brubaker will not typically go deep into ballgames, so this is critical for betting the Pirates. They have enough arms in middle relief who can get the game to David Bednar.
All of these factors should make this closer to +140 for the moneyline, so there’s value on the Pirates at +145.
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Jules Posner: After the New York Yankees put a hurting on the Kansas City Royals Friday night, they send ace Gerrit Cole to the mound to clinch the series victory.
Despite playing in Kauffman Stadium on a cool night, the Yankees’ offense was suspiciously potent on Friday.
Overall the Yankees are still below average on the road against RHP in terms of team wRC+, but they are facing Carlos Hernandez, whose home ERA is over 7 and home FIP is over 5.
The Royals’ bullpen is solid, but Hernandez may put them in a hole early. This isn’t just a 2022 issue for Hernandez. He was also two runs worse at home in 2021, so it seems that his struggles at home are just a part of his DNA.
Cole enjoyed a solid bounce back effort in his last start and although the Royals put up two runs (a lot of runs for the Royals at home) in Friday night’s game, their offense is among the league’s worst against RHP at home.
The Yankees bullpen has also been solid this year, so the combination of them and Cole seems like a good formula to keep the Royals’ offense off the board.
Since the Yankees’ moneyline is in the -200 range, the run line is the best pick here. It’s presently -125, and should be taken to around -140.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Collin Whitchurch: Betting Coors Field unders is risky. Betting Coors Field unders when the visiting team is 3-17 and starting a 28-year-old journeyman with 15 1/3 career major league innings might be downright nuts.
The justification here is the continued fading of the Cincinnati offense. One would expect the Reds to eventually put together results better than their current league-worst record, but I don’t think that starts today.
Chad Kuhl has been competent — downright good, even — in his first three starts with Colorado, including his one home start against the Phillies when he allowed one run on just two hits in six innings.
You shouldn’t expect much from Connor Overton, but the only way this has a shot at going over the total is if the Rockies get there themselves. That’s certainly possible, but I’m betting against the Reds offense getting to Kuhl and on the unknown element of Overton keeps Colorado’s bats somewhat at bay early.
You can find under 6 at a lot of books and that’s a fine number, too, but I’ll pay a little extra for the hook at FanDuel to guard against a potential push.
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