MLB Odds & Picks: 2 Best Bets, Including Brewers vs. Cardinals & Phillies vs. Braves (Sunday, April 11)
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jean Segura.
Our staff has found angles on two games, including an afternoon tilt between the Brewers and Cardinals and that aforementioned ESPN game, which features an NL East battle between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.
Below, you’ll find our two best bets for Sunday’s MLB action.
MLB Odds & Picks
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tanner McGrath: I really like the Cardinals in this spot.
The Brewers today are starting left-hander Brett Anderson, who’s coming off a tough start against the hapless Cubs’ offense. Anderson gave up three home runs in five innings as the Brewers suffered another early-season loss.
Unfortunately for Anderson, the Cardinals mashed southpaws at home in 2020. Against left-handed pitching at home last season, the Cardinals led the majors in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The Cardinals have faced just one lefty this season — Miami’s Trevor Rogers — and snagged two early runs off him on two hits and four walks. The Cardinals went on to win that game.
The Cardinals pitcher that day was today’s starter: Daniel Ponce de Leon. He pitched very well in that start, allowing just one run on three hits and a walk over five innings, picking up the win in his 2021 debut.
Today, Ponce de Leon will attempt to extend his winning streak against a Brewers team that finished in the bottom-10 in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2020. Plus, Milwaukee has just a .538 OPS against righties in early-season 2021 play so far.
The combination of the Cardinals against the left-handed Anderson and the Brewers against the right-handed Ponce de Leon makes St. Louis a smart play.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Brad Cunningham: Boy, oh boy, is this a terrible pitching matchup on Sunday Night Baseball between two has-beens. Matt Moore pretty much got away with murder in his first start of the season against the Mets, while Drew Smyly is looking to establish himself in the Braves rotation.
This series has been a high scoring one with both games going over the total, as two of the best offenses in the NL have shined. Both the Braves and Phillies were average against left-handed pitching last season, so I think we will see the same story tonight.
The last time Smyly and Moore pitched full seasons, it did not go well. In 2019, they both posted an xFIP over 5.00 and an ERA over six. So, how do you think it’s going to go against two lineups that finished in the top half in wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2020.