MLB Odds, Expert Picks Saturday: Best Bets for Phillies vs Dodgers (Saturday, June 10)
Pictured: Bobby Miller. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
- There are a full 15 games on the MLB slate today, meaning there are also numerous MLB betting opportunities.
- Our baseball betting experts have looked over the board and found value in multiple spots, including in Diamondbacks vs. Tigers and Dodgers vs. Phillies.
- The picks are below, so be sure to continue reading for the best MLB bets for Saturday, June 10.
There are few things better than a Saturday loaded with baseball and that's exactly what we are treated to on June 10. With every team in action, there are 15 MLB games on the schedule.
The first pitch of the afternoon is at 1:10 p.m. ET and the last game gets going at 10:07 p.m. ET, so there's no shortage of action throughout the day. Speaking of action, our MLB betting experts have found some value on the board and detail their best bets below.
Continue reading for the best MLB bets for Saturday, June 10.
Saturday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers
By D.J. James
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest teams in baseball and sit atop the National League West standings. On Saturday, they face a Detroit Tigers squad that has struggled over the past two weeks.
Ryne Nelson will pitch for Arizona and the Tigers will counter with Matt Boyd. Nelson has been subpar this season, but the Tigers have been abysmal offensively, especially off of righties.
Nelson’s weak pitching should be negated by Detroit's struggling offense and the Diamondbacks have hit lefties well, so Arizona should win this game.
Nelson ranks in the 10th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 36th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. He has a 5.40 ERA, but a 5.06 xERA. He also improved in May with a 4.15 ERA over 26 innings. And of course, a matchup against one of the worst offenses in the league never hurts.
Additionally, Arizona mashes against lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the middle of the pack with a 107 wRC+ and a .771 OPS in the past month. They have six hitters with a xwOBA over .350 and should string together runs against Boyd and the Tigers bullpen.
Boyd's 5.57 ERA doesn't tell the whole story because he has a 4.02 xERA and ranks in the 77th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. He also has solid Whiff and Chase Rate rankings, but posted a 6.46 ERA in May. He is pretty up-and-down, so it’s tough to back him with an ailing Tigers’ lineup.
The Tigers struggle against righties. They have a 72 wRC+ and a .600 OPS in the past month. In June, Detroit has a 33.3% Strikeout Rate, a .396 OPS and a 13 wRC+ — obviously far from ideal.
The Tigers can't hit. That's the story of this game.
Since the Diamondbacks can hit lefties, and have the better bullpen, bet Arizona on the moneyline up to -150 . The D'backs have a considerable edge with the bats, and until the Tigers prove otherwise, they are fade material.
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Phillies vs. Dodgers
By D.J. James
Bobby Miller has been electric since being called up to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He was the Dodgers No. 2 prospect for a reason. He has a 1.06 ERA and a 2.10 xERA, both elite numbers. He has only allowed two barrels over his three starts against solid hitting teams: the Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals and New York Yankees.
He will face Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies. Nola has been on the wrong side of luck this season with a 4.30 ERA against a 3.66 xERA. He has an above average Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate rank. His strikeout numbers have dropped significantly, but he is starting to look like himself and struck out 12 in his most recent start.
Now, the Phillies have been above average hitting righties in June. They have a 109 wRC+ with a 9.9% walk rate and a .778 OPS. The Dodgers have a 96 wRC+ with a 7.6% walk rate and a .714 OPS. With two great starters on the hill, it is hard to see either of these teams manufacturing many runs.
In relief, both teams have a sub-4.00 xFIP. The Dodgers have done so with a LOB percentage below 70%, too.
Given that both teams have starters capable of getting deep into games, there's no reason the total should be this high. Take the under in this game from 9 (+100), and play it to 8 (-120).