MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: 5 Best Bets From Tuesday’s Slate, Including Rockies vs. Cardinals, Dodgers vs. Brewers (August 16)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Rowdy Tellez
Tuesday's MLB slate brings with it several premiere matchups, including an NL East slugfest between the Mets and Braves, and a matchup between the two AL Cy Young favorites — Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease — in White Sox vs. Astros.
We also have the Dodgers as an underdog for only the third time this season when they face the Brewers in Milwaukee.
There's plenty of betting options throughout the slate, and our analysts have picks on two of the aforementioned games, as well as Royals vs. Twins and Rockies vs. Cardinals.
Here are our five best bets from Tuesday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Mets vs. Braves
Kenny Ducey: The song remains the same in 2022 for Taijuan Walker. A year ago, the Mets righty lit the National League on fire on the first half, only to crumble in the second half. This season has been no different. In four starts after the break so far, Walker has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 ⅔ innings, which equates to an unsightly 7.71 ERA.
It should also be said that Walker was a big regression candidate to start with. He’s pitched to a 4.19 xERA this season with a 41.9% hard-hit rate which is his second-worst ever tracked by Statcast. His strikeout numbers have cratered, and he’s not exactly pitched too well to contact.
Atlanta owns the hottest offense in baseball at the moment with a league-best 149 wRC+ in the last week and for the season ranks second in hard-hit rate. This will be tough on him, and with the Mets’ recent play — they’ve been right at league average in the last week offensively — it’s hard to say he’ll have a ton of run support.
Charlie Morton has been inconsistent this season, but he’s proven he can still miss bats with 50 strikeouts in his last 42 ⅔ innings. While he was lit up by the Mets the last time he saw them, he gave up three homers — something that is unlike the Mets. Missing bats will help you defeat this contact-oriented team, and I think the Braves are comfortable favorites here.
Mets vs. Braves
Nicholas Martin: Taijuan Walker has fallen into a familiar trend of late, as the Mets starter has now pitched to an ERA of 7.71 since the All-Star break, including an August 5th outing versus the Braves which saw Atlanta chase Walker after producing eight runs in a single inning.
Matt Olson did some damage in that August 5th matchup versus the Mets with a double in his lone plate appearance against Walker, and that seems far from surprising considering the splits working in his favor.
Olson has slugged .530 against right-handed pitching this season, while Walker has allowed a .416 SLG rate to left-handed batters.
This could be a solid spot for the red-hot Braves to manage another strong offensive outing, and I believe Olson is a great target for a big-day at the plate.
At -110 for Olson to manage over 1.5 bases I believe we have the right price to make a play, and I would play this down to -120.
Royals vs. Twins
Jules Posner: The Minnesota Twins have found themselves in the middle of a dog fight. Not only are they trying to claw their way back into first place in the AL Central, but they are also trying to fight their way into an AL Wild Card spot.
They couldn't have picked a better time to run into the Kansas City Royals at home after a brief, but painful 1-4 road trip through southern California.
The Twins also get to face Zack Greinke, who has been really bad on the road this season. Greinke has posted a 7.16 ERA, with a 5.96 FIP, and a 4.93 xFIP over 44 road innings. He's been very fade-worthy.
The Twins' offense has also been one of the better home offenses against RHP this season. They also get to face a Royals bullpen that has been consistently among the league's worst.
Despite some injuries to some key players, the Twins' offense has still managed to maintain a high level of production, especially at home. Additionally, Max Kepler has returned to the lineup, giving the Twins some additional depth in the batting order.
Sonny Gray gets the ball for the Twins and he's been solid at home for the Twins this season. He also seems to have shaken off a rough July by posting a 2.79 ERA so far in August.
The Twins' run line opened at -1.5 at +100 odds, which is a great value. I would play it at -115 or better.
Rockies vs. Cardinals
DJ James: In the month of August, both the Colorado Rockies and the St. Louis Cardinals have fared well against left-handed pitching. The Rockies own a 107 wRC+, while the Cards own a 137 wRC+.
On Tuesday, they will each see a southpaw starter in Kyle Freeland and José Quintana, respectively. Quintana thrives on weak contact. He ranks in the 82nd percentile in average exit velocity at 87 mph. His chase rate also ranks in the top-20% of the MLB.
He has been getting lucky this season, however, with a 3.37 ERA and 4.02 xERA. The Rockies should be good for a few runs with him in the game and perhaps a few late off of the Cardinals bullpen.
The Cards are even stronger at the dish with a lefty on the bump. Freeland ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in both hard hit rate and average exit velocity.
His strikeout rate is only a touch above 16%, too, so Saint Louis should be ready to feast.
The Rockies' bullpen ranks in the bottom-10 xFIPs of the league in the last month, so the Cardinals will have late-inning chances to score.
Take the over in this ballgame from 7.5 (-120) to 8.5 (-115).
Dodgers vs. Brewers
Charlie DiSturco: It’s never fun to fade the Los Angeles Dodgers, especially against a righty, but Tuesday night is the perfect fade spot as Ryan Pepiot takes the mound against Brandon Woodruff.
Pepiot’s biggest issue in his limited time as a big leaguer has been commanding the strike zone. There’s no denying he has electric stuff, but Pepiot’s walk rate is 16.5% and it’s been an issue he’s had even in the minors. His xFIP is also up around 5.50, over a run and a half higher than his actual ERA of 3.92.
The rookie also has just a 22 percent ground ball rate — again, in 20 2/3 innings — and while it should inch toward his career averages in the minors, it’s a bit alarming given his 9.8% barrel rate. He’s been hit hard in his limited time despite a .199 xBA.
He matches up against ol’ reliable Brandon Woodruff for the Milwaukee Brewers. The right-hander has a 3.52 ERA this season but expected indicators sit in the low 3s. Opponents have just a .221 xBA against him and if you take a closer look, Woodruff has been night and day with his home-road splits.
In seven starts at American Family Field, he has a 2.38 ERA and a WHIP all the way down at 0.77. On the road? Those numbers drastically jump up to a 4.47 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Tack on the fact that Woodruff has a 2.45 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break and he's one of the pitchers worth targeting as the regular season runs its course.
I love the Brewers here on the first five money line price of -128 up to about -135. There’s a clear edge on the mound and it’s worth noting that against right-handed pitching, Milwaukee ranks inside the top 5 in walk rate, wOBA and isolated power.
They’ll be patient against Pepiot and force him to command the zone which he’s struggled to do in his limited time as a Dodger.
It’s time to hold your nose and back Milwaukee across the first five innings up to -135.
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