MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Red Sox vs. Yankees Betting Preview (September 24)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Gleyber Torres #25 (right), Oswald Peraza #91 New York Yankees.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds
|Red Sox Odds||+135|
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The biggest rivalry in baseball continues in New York with the Yankees hosting the Boston Red Sox. Domingo Germán will go for New York, and Nick Pivetta will start for the Red Sox. Neither of these pitchers are good. Germán has a 3.12 ERA, but this is deceiving with a 4.06 xERA and far below average peripherals. Pivetta has a 4.35 ERA and 4.44 xERA, so he is at least much more in line with expectations but a poor starter, nonetheless.
In addition, both of these offenses have skyrocketed lately against right-handed pitching, and both of these starters are righties. New Yorks’s wRC+ against righties is 123 while Boston’s team wRC+ off of righties is 117.
Lastly, the Yankees have a decent bullpen, but they have their weak spots. The Red Sox have notably one of the worst ‘pens in the MLB.
All of these factors point toward an over in this game. Expect plenty of fireworks and potentially a team-record-setting bomb from a potential future Triple Crown Award Winner (Aaron Judge).
Red Sox Righties Will Be Challenged
Pivetta had a nice May and June, but otherwise he has been a below average starting pitcher. He ranks in the seventh percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the ninth percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage. The Yanks rank second in Exit Velocity and third in Hard-Hit Percentage, so this matchup is like pairing a wine with a hot dog instead of cheese.
Judge jumps off of the Statcast page. He is averaging 96.3 MPH off the bat with an xwOBA of .576 off of right-handers in the last month. He has almost willed the Yankees to the top of the American League East in the second half alone.
Gleyber Torres has a .411 xwOBA with an Average Exit Velocity of 92 MPH in the last month. Marwin González, Kyle Higashioka, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Josh Donaldson have .325+ xwOBAs in September. This is more than enough artillery to throw Pivetta’s way.
The Red Sox also have an abysmal bullpen xFIP of 4.57, which ranks 27th in the MLB over the last month. With Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck on the Injured List, they only have two relievers below the 4.00 mark, so they will also allow runs late in the game after Pivetta exits.
Yankees’ Depleted Bullpen Could Struggle
However, Germán is not too sharp either. He is overachieving at the moment, and the chickens will come home to roost in this one. He ranks in the 14th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 28th percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage. This is a solid explanation for an xERA nearly a point higher than his actual ERA.
Boston is even better, collectively, against righties. No, the Red Sox don’t have Judge, but they have eight batters above a .315 xwOBA. Most of the hitters on this team are averaging over 90 MPH off the bat, as well. They will handle Germán.
New York does have a good bullpen with an xFIP of 3.69. The Yankees only have four arms below a 4.00 xFIP with Wandy Peralta, Albert Abreu, Michael King, Miguel Castro, Chad Green, Luis Gil and Stephen Ridings on the IL. The Red Sox could squeeze a few across late.
Red Sox-Yankees Pick
The Yankees and the Red Sox are great offensively against right-handed pitching. That is the story in this rivalry game. Even if the BoSox are out of the playoff race, they will show up for this one.
Judge will continue to hit, and so will his supporting cast. With two weak starting pitchers, and not necessarily the best bullpens, the over should clear. Take the over at 8 (-107), and play to 9 (-110).
Pick: Over 8 (-107) | play to 9 (-110)