MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox (Friday, Sept. 11)

Tigers vs. White Sox Odds

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The Tigers' playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread. They split their double-header with the Cardinals yesterday and are just 3-7 over their past 10 games. Now they’ll hit the road for a three-game series with the division-leading White Sox.

Playing at Guaranteed Rate Field has been somewhat of a bugaboo of late for the Tigers — they've lost their last five games there and have been outscored 36-12.

On Friday night, they’ll send their rookie right-hander, Casey Mize to the mound to challenge Lucas 3 of the White Sox. Mize actually made his big-league debut against the White Sox more than three weeks ago. Even though the Tigers lost in his debut, Mize still held the advantage going in as the unknown.

This time around, I suspect the advantage will lie with the White Sox.

Detroit Tigers

Through four starts in the big leagues, Mize is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. While he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any outing, he’s also yet to make it through five innings of work. These may just be growing pains for the young right-hander. But it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.

In 14 innings, batters are hitting .297 against Mize and .356 after contact. If that’s not enough, he also has a high 3.68 BB/9 ratio. Usually pitches struggle with men on base or in scoring position, but with Mize, the damage is occurring with the bases empty. He has a 5.68 BB/9 ratio and 4.26 HR/9 ratio with the bases empty along with a 9.50 FIP in this situational spot.

Per Fangraphs, in medium leveraged situations, batters are hitting .341 against him with a .420 OBP and .614 SLG. Usually around this time is when he gets the hook and the Tigers bullpen is called in to action.

That’s not necessarily a good thing as Tigers relievers are ranked 26th in the majors with a 5.17 ERA.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox should be happy to see Giolito back on the mound. They’ve won his last four outings and have outscored their opponents 26-8. Two of those wins were shutouts with one of them of course being his no-hitter against the Pirates. The other shutout came against the Tigers, who he is 5-2 against in his career.

Giolito looks like a bet-on pitcher right now. He’s 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA and a stellar 0.99 WHIP. What’s even more attractive is his 2.72 FIP which suggests an improvement in his ERA by at least a half-run.

As for the White Sox lineup, they continue to have success in creating runs. They’re tied for second in all of baseball with a 120 wRC+ rating.

My model projects them at around 6.28 runs in this matchup, but I'll look to exercise some caution there as there is an 11-mph wind blowing in from left field.

Betting Analysis

The elements in Chicago will actually benefit the White Sox more than the Tigers simply because good pitchers are that much tougher to hit. You don't need to hit the ball out of the ballpark to create runs. You first create runs by getting on base and few teams have done a better job with that than the White Sox.

This is where Mize's 3.68 BB/9 ratio and 1.70 WHIP can get him into trouble. I would expect another short outing for the young right-hander with the White Sox going to work on the Tigers bullpen. I think the White Sox win this one by margin and this season they're 28-15 on the run line and 20-10 on the run line when they're a favorite.

BetRivers looks to have the best RL on the board at -129 and that's worth a look in my book. I'll lay the price and risk a half-unit that the White Sox make it 7-1 straight-up and against the spread vs. the Tigers this season.

PICK: White Sox RL -129 (up to -135)

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