The New York Yankees host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 22, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Yankees are favored by -178 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +150 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction
- Pirates vs Yankees Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115, FanDuel)
My Pirates vs Yankees best bet is on Gerrit Cole to record 7+ strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Yankees Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | +150 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | -178 |
- Pirates vs Yankees moneyline: Pirates +150, Yankees -178
- Pirates vs Yankees over/under: 9.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Pirates vs Yankees spread: Yankees -1.5 (+114), Pirates +1.5 (-137)
Pirates vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) | Stat | RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.14/5.39 | ERA / xERA | 3.93/3.59 |
| 4.47/4.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.94/3.98 |
| 9.5% | K-BB% | 18.7% |
| 37.9% | GB% | 34.4% |
| .286 | BABIP | .281 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 102 | Location+ | 105 |
Pirates vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
I thought a lot about what to attack in this matchup. On one hand, the Yankees had their best offensive showing in close to a month in the series-opening win over the Pirates.
That feels like an outlier, though. Since June 1st, a sample of over 40 games, the Yankees are 25th in MLB with a 92 wRC+. Without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, this lineup just isn’t very good.
Things change a bit if Jazz Chisholm stays hot or Cody Bellinger gets going. But I can’t justify backing the Yankees with their porous offense.
Conversely, Mitch Keller is having a brutal season. He owns a 5.14 ERA with a 5.39 xERA and 4.49 FIP. Keller relies heavily on contact, particularly via the fly ball, which could make this matchup difficult.
So, my play here centers on the pitcher opposing Keller: former Pirate Gerrit Cole.
In his first year back from Tommy John Surgery, Cole has a 3.93 ERA with a 3.59 xERA and a 3.94 FIP. The biggest roadblock in his return from injury is the long ball, as his HR/9 is 1.47, up from 1.04 in 2024.
In this best bet, I want to target Cole's strikeouts. Sure, his K/9 is just 9.00, but that provides a decent opportunity to get in on a lower price for his strikeout prop.
Cole has his 96-99 four-seamer back in the fold, and with his ability to fill the strike zone, he'll likely have plenty of two-strike counts. The Pirates are one of the more strikeout-heavy teams in the league, ranking 26th in MLB with a 24% strikeout rate.
The former CY Young winner punched out 6+ hitters in three consecutive outings, including eight against the Dodgers in his most recent start. Aaron Boone is also plenty willing to push his starters, especially Cole. His providing length is huge ahead of game two, where Max Fried will take the mound on a 65-70 pitch count.
All but two typical Pirates starters (Jake Mangum and Nick Gonzales) strike out 20% of the time or more. Prized rookie Esmerlyn Valdez is the most strikeout-prone Pirate, punching out a brutal 34% of the time. Meanwhile, Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Tyler Callihan check in with a strikeout rate above 27%. Those four alone will provide Cole with some pretty good candidates to tack onto his strikeout total.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115, FanDuel)
