After an exciting Wild Card round, the MLB Postseason continues on Saturday, October 4, with the first game of all four Division Series, and our analysts have found value worth betting.
Our MLB betting experts and systems have dug into today's MLB playoff odds and made their picks and predictions below, so continue reading for today's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:08 p.m. | |
  | 4:08 p.m. | |
  | 6:38 p.m. | |
  | 8:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Wright's Cubs vs Brewers Best Bet: Boyd Won't Last Long
Milwaukee pounded lefties to close the season, ranking in the top five in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ over the final two months. More importantly for this bet, the Brewers had the lowest strikeout rate in that span at just 16.3%.
After a strong first half, the Cubs' Matthew Boyd struggled to close the season. His strikeout rate slipped under 20% over his final 10 starts. The lefty was rocked by this Milwaukee squad twice in that span.
Boyd is pitching on short rest after starting on Tuesday against the Padres. His outs prop is at 12.5, so we probably won’t see more than four or five innings from him.
Pick: Matthew Boyd Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-117)
| | | |
Tony Sartori's Yankees vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Back Gausman
By Tony Sartori
Kevin Gausman has fared well against the Yankees. Today's Blue Jays starter has posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 16 meetings.
Notably, he has thrived at generating swings and misses, posting 10.18 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) during the span. In nine of those 16 outings, he recorded seven or more strikeouts.
His excellence this year extends beyond just the Yankees. Through 32 starts, Gausman posted a 3.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest this strong pitching could carry into the postseason. He finished in the top half among qualified pitchers in expected ERA (xERA) and expected batting average (xBA).
This season, the right-hander ranked in the 85th percentile among qualified pitchers in chase rate, 59th percentile in whiff rate, and 63rd percentile in strikeout rate.
Considering Toronto’s bullpen woes this season, it wouldn’t be surprising if Gausman logs an extended appearance in Game 1, boosting the likelihood of cashing the over on his strikeout prop.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (+104)
| | | |
PRO's Dodgers vs Phillies Best Bet: Fade Schwarber Against Ohtani
By Action PRO
PRO projects Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber with 0.39 RBI today, which represents a nice 8.5% edge against the market.
Although Schwarber had another great season, leading the National League with 56 home runs and 132 RBI, he will face a tough matchup today.
Shohei Ohtani, Schwarber's main rival for the NL MVP award, will take the mound for the Dodgers in his first career postseason appearance as a pitcher.
Ohtani allowed no runs in his past three starts in September, while striking out 18 batters in 14 and 2/3 innings in that span.
In this exciting matchup, you can fade the Phillies slugger against Ohtani and the Dodgers.
Pick: Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 RBI (-145)
| | | |
Bet Labs' Tigers vs Mariners Best Bet: System-Backed Under
By Bet Labs
The "Playoff Unders with Elite Pitching" system is built on the premise that elite pitching, balanced offenses, and playoff intensity combine to suppress scoring in tightly contested postseason games, such as tonight's clash between Tigers and Mariners.
This model keys in on games where both teams feature strong starting pitchers — each with an ERA between roughly 2.66 and 6.30 — and neither team is overly explosive offensively, averaging between 4.5 and 5 runs per game.
These games also follow a recent underperformance relative to the total, with the home team coming off a game where the final score fell short of the over/under.
By filtering for non-division playoff matchups, this system captures scenarios where unfamiliarity between opponents can favor pitchers.
The totals are modest (between 6.5 and 9), suggesting the market anticipates scoring but not excessively so —creating a perfect window for elite arms to take control.
This system bets the under, capitalizing on postseason pressure, strong pitching, and measured offensive outputs to deliver high-ROI outcomes when it matters most.
Pick: Under 7 (-115)
| | | |
