The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees on October 4, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 4:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Yankees vs Blue Jays picks: Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts (+104 | Play to -105)
My Yankees vs Blue Jays best bet is on Kevin Gausman to record over 6.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -105o / -115u | -125 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Gil (NYY) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 10-11 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.1 |
| 3.32 / 4.78 | ERA / xERA | 3.59 / 3.69 |
| 4.63 / 5.65 | FIP / xFIP | 3.42 / 3.77 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 3.3% | K-BB% | 17.9% |
| 31.4% | GB% | 37.3% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 93 | Location+ | 103 |
Tony Sartori’s Yankees vs Blue Jays Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: With Big Swings Come Big Whiffs
The New York Yankees boast one of the most powerful lineups in baseball.
However, with those aggressive swings come plenty of misses.
This season, New York finished with the third-most strikeouts in Major League Baseball. The only two teams to strike out more were the Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies, two teams the Yankees obviously don’t want to be mentioned alongside.
Subsequently, opposing starting pitchers averaged 7.07 strikeouts per five innings in the final four games of the regular season against New York.
The five-inning mark is especially relevant here, as Kevin Gausman has thrown at least five innings in 16 of his past 17 starts.
The Yankees have also struggled against Gausman specifically. Through 302 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, the current Yankees roster has posted a 27.2% strikeout rate and 30.7% whiff rate.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Back Gausman Against Divisional Foe
Gausman has fared well against the Yankees. He's posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 16 meetings.
Notably, he has thrived at generating swings and misses, posting 10.18 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) during the span. Gausman recorded seven or more strikeouts in nine of those 16 outings.
His excellence this year extends beyond just the Yankees. Through 32 starts, Gausman posted a 3.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest this strong pitching could carry into the postseason. He finished in the top half among qualified pitchers in expected ERA (xERA) and expected batting average (xBA).
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
Gausman’s most impressive skill has been generating swing-and-miss.
This season, the right-hander ranked in the 85th percentile among qualified pitchers in chase rate, 59th percentile in whiff rate, and 63rd percentile in strikeout rate.
Considering Toronto’s bullpen woes this season, it wouldn’t be surprising if Gausman logs an extended appearance in Game 1, boosting the likelihood of cashing the over on his strikeout prop.
Pick: Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts (+104 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I lean toward Toronto, but there is too much uncertainty with the Yankees' pitching situation.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Toronto to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
I also like the under, but I'm staying away once again for the same reason.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
