Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, August 27.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Rockies/Nationals Over 9 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 9
- Royals (F5) -125, 0.63u | Need -125 or better
- Braves (F5) -125, 1u | Bet to -135
Rockies @ Nationals Picks
The run environment in Washington is 6% above average in Statcast’s latest update of their rolling three year park factors. Early weather forecasts suggest an additional 6-7% increase with scheduled umpire Tripp Gibson reducing run scoring by just 0.7%.
We’re already up 11-12% without even getting to the participants in this event.
Gabriel Hughes’ 6.54 ERA is well above his underlying indicators, but just how much above depends on which of those indicators you’re looking at.
Going from worst to best, his contact neutral estimators (4.45 SIERA, 4.30 xFIP) see him a bit below league average with a 10.8 K-BB%, the most concerning metric being a 94.2 Z-Contact%. I did not include his 4.62 dERA here because nobody really knows what the secret sauce is.
Pitch modeling (4.18 Bot ERA, 94 Pitching+) see him slightly better than the contact neutral estimators. The main point of contention between the two measurements is the 92.3 mph fastball Hughes throws 55% of the time. Pitching Bot believes it’s been near elite (60), while Pitching+ thinks it’s merely average (102). Both grade the slider (thrown 16.8%) below average and also agree that the overall command is above average (55 BotCmd, 107 Location+).
Finally, contact inclusive estimators (3.86 FIP, 3.46 xERA) acknowledge his excellent contact profile, which include an 8.5 HR/FB with four of his six barrels (4.5%) leaving the park and just a 30.1 HardHit% overall.
Considering the former estimators are stickier with a smaller sample size, I have Hughes at four and a third runs per nine overall.
Should the projected Washington lineup via BARTOLO hold, it would average a 113 wRC+ at home, 100 vs RHP and 89 over the last 30 days. It has also accumulated a solid 8 BRR (Base Running Runs).
The Colorado projected defense sits at 0 FRV (Fielding Run Value), while their pen has the second worst estimators in the league over the last month (4.16 FIP, 5.14 xFIP, 4.83 SIERA). BARTOLO ranks them worst in the league (4.47 wFIP).
We’re halfway through and there no metrics yet suggesting this might be a below average scoring game.
Jake Irvin also has a 5.82 ERA that sits above estimators, but of those, only a 4.24 Bot ERA (95 Pitching+) and 4.34 SIERA are below four and a half, while his xERA sits at 5.38. I have him just below five runs per nine.
The projected Colorado lineup averages a 98 wRC+ on the road, 98 vs RHP and 94 over the last 30 days.
We’ve hit our first snag, but it’s not an incompetent lineup and there’s one caveat. I’m projecting Hunter Goodman to sit for the day game after a night game, especially after recently returning from the IL, though he could certainly at least DH, pushing the Colorado lineup above the 100 wRC+ mark.
The Washington projected defense has accumulated 6 FRV. Their bullpen sits 10th worst over the last 30 days (4.18 FIP, 4.52 xFIP, 4.12 SIERA). BARTOLO has them 5th worst (4.15 wFIP).
In the end, we’re looking at above average offense on both sides with an additional 11-12% boost which is about a full run. That should push us past the market total of 9 here.
We’ll keep it 0.5u because of the volatility in mid-week day game lineups.
Pick: Over 9 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 9
Royals @ Blue Jays Picks
The underlying metrics suggest that Noah Cameron’s 4.02 ERA is probably who he is (or has been this year).
He has a 3.59 FIP, but only 14 of his 33 barrels have left the yard. His pitch modeling is conflicting (4.44 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+) and it’s not just one pitch, they differ on most of his arsenal.
The remainder of his estimators range from a 4.05 FIP to a 4.23 dERA.
However, over the last month, Cameron has a 1.26 ERA with a 3.96 SIERA (15 K-BB%), but 1.89 xERA (1 barrel with a 31.5 HardHit%). It’s kind of crazy because in the preceding five starts, he allowed 11 barrels.
His velocity also went from 92.5 mph in July to 93.1 in August.
Cameron has struck out at least seven in three of his last five starts (also five of his last eight), but just two in the other two. One of those was against the Dodgers. The other against the Tigers in his last start, in which he averaged 92 mph, his lowest velocity in a start since May.
His PitcherList card does grade him a B+ for Location against Detroit though.
What have we established?
He can be an effective pitcher, if also a volatile one without all the kinks ironed out.
Though the Blue Jays have just an 80 wRC+ against LHP as a team, their projected lineup averages a 99 wRC+ at home, 105 vs LHP and 102 over the last 30 days. The main caveat being that only Kaz Okamoto (.240) and the recently promoted Daz Cameron (.308) have ISO’s above .134 against southpaws this year.
The projected Kansas City defense has accumulated 14 FRV, although that also counts Sal Perez’s -9. If he’s not behind the plate they improve by about that much, though Bobby Witt Jr. is also responsible for 18 FRV on his own and Michael Massey (5) is in the projected lineup, but may not play.
This will be a lot quicker: the Royals have the worst bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days and are BARTOLO’s 2nd worst unit.
Whereas Cameron has been volatile, Spencer Arrighetti has been just bad.
His 22.7 K% isn’t bad, but he comes about it with a career worst 9.8 SwStr% and no improvement in a league average called strike rate.
He’s also allowing 8.2% Barrels/BBE on a 31.1 HardHit%. That’s kind of hard to do even with a 35.1 GB%.
A 13 BB% caps it all off, which is how you get a 4.73 ERA matching his 4.72 SIERA, while being below all of his remaining non-pitch modeling estimators.
The Blue Jays opened for him in his first outing with the team. It did not work. Five of the 15 batters he faced reached base. Three scored. One of the two barrels on just nine batted balls left the yard.
While the projected Kansas City lineup struggles on the road (88 wRC+), they’ve been fine against RHP (103 wRC+, .163 ISO) and hot over the last month (113 wRC+) with Vinnie Pasquantino (200 wRC+), Jac Caglianone (191) and Bobby Witt Jr. (151) all returning from injuries furiously.
The projected Toronto defense averages the same 14 FRV as Kansas City. Alejandro Kirk is responsible for nine of those. Kaz Okamoto (-3) and Ernie Clement (-3) are the only negatives.
The Toronto bullpen has the 6th worst estimators over the last month, though BARTOLO ranks them 14th. Better than Kansas City either way.
I have Cameron about a run better than Arrighetti or double what BARTOLO makes the gap. I just see two pitchers going in different directions this year. Even if Cameron reverts here, the Royals still have a chance against Arrighetti.
I actually rate the Kansas City offense a bit better as well and part of that is Arrighetti’s massive split, favoring LHBs by 100 points of wOBA (LHBs .364 wOBA, .379 xwOBA), while Cameron has a slightly reverse one (LHBs .325 wOBA, .324 xwOBA/RHBs .287 wOBA, .309 xwOBA).
The defenses are comparable with projected lineups also favoring the Royals by a very marginal 4 BRR.
We can avoid bullpens completely by taking the Royals F5 (-125). The issue is that this price is also my threshold, but it’s currently available on DraftKings.
Pick: Royals (F5), 0.63u | Need -125 or better
Dodgers @ Braves Picks
You could certainly call Yoshinobu Yamamoto a work horse, averaging nearly 6.2 IP over 23 starts, but I might stop short of calling him an Ace this year. Perhaps the Dodgers, with all their injuries, needed the workhorse more anyway.
You may not have noticed it by the 2.61 ERA, but his underlying peripherals have fallen off slightly.
His 18.9 K-BB% is down nearly two points from last season, which was down nearly two points from his rookie season. His contact profile (6.3% Barrels/BBE, 36 HardHit%) has remained relatively consistent with last year (5.7% Barrels/BBE, 39.7 HardHit%), but the resulting one-third of a run increase in xERA comes with the reduced K-BB.
The things Yamamoto is doing at a career best rate (.225 BABIP, 80.2 LOB%) are least in his control and least sustainable.
Still, with estimators ranging from a 3.01 xERA to a 3.48 SIERA, any team would be thrilled to have him in a post-season rotation.
He just hasn’t been as good as Chris Sale (25.1 K-BB%), who just might be your NL Cy Young winner again in a world without Jacob Misiorowski.
Sale has six straight quality starts with a total of nine runs allowed and a 33.1 K-BB%. He has just four starts below a 19.2 K-BB% all season long!
Sale’s worst estimator, a 3.05 xERA, is 0.04 runs above Yamamoto’s best (also xERA), even though his 5.3% Barrels/BBE and 34.6 HardHit% are better with just a 1.8 point difference in ground ball rates,
I have Sale nearly three-quarters of a run better than Yamamoto and that’s not far off from BARTOLO's gap either.
Offensively, the Braves (projected lineup 117 wRC+ at home, 109 v RHP, 91 L30 days) are in their better split against RHP, while the Dodgers (116 wRC+ on the road, 115 v LHP, 79 L30 days) are in their lesser one against LHP, evening that component out.
Both defenses are above average with projected lineups giving the Braves a small 6 FRV edge. The lineups are separated by just 1 BRR.
Things get a bit more volatile in the bullpens where the Dodgers have the 14th best estimators over the last 30 days and the Braves are 4th worst. BARTOLO ranks the bullpens 1st and 9th respectively, either way, a Dodger advantage and one we can happily avoid.
Sale has been the better pitcher and is the largest Atlanta edge in this game, where the Dodgers may not have any if we keep away from bullpens.
Pick: Braves (F5) – 125, 1u | Bet to -135
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 27
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Rockies/Nationals Over 9 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 9
- Royals (F5) -125, 0.63u | Need -125 or better
- Braves (F5) -125, 1u | Bet to -135
