Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, August 31.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Giants vs Braves — Over 8.5 Runs
- New York Mets Over 3.5 Total Runs
- Mets vs Rays — Over 8 Runs
- Payton Tolle Under 7.5 Strikeouts
- Brewers vs Cubs — Under 9.5 Runs
- Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts
- Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 ER
- Peter Lambert Over in Walks
- Home Run Parlay (See Below)
- Strikeout Parlay (See Below)
Giants vs Braves Picks
This is the top run-scoring environment in my data. My sim model puts this game at an 11-run average total. That's mostly on the Braves side as they project very well against Anthony Molina and the Giants bullpen in Atlanta.
Bryce Elder has had a fine season for the Braves, and it's still a soft matchup against the Giants. But the Giants do a lot more run-scoring on the road, which makes sense given that brutal home ballpark.
They've hit 81 homers on the road and just 68 at home — a huge difference. So I think they can sneak a few balls out of the yard here against Elder and his pitch-to-contact ways.
This is the most mispriced O/U on the night, and I'm jumping at the opportunity.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
Mets vs Rays Picks
Over at MLB Data Warehouse, I have a model that looks at hitter performance against the pitch movement profiles of the starting pitcher they're facing tonight.
You get a pretty good picture of how each collection of nine hitters lines up against the starter that night from the data.
And the number one offense on the board tonight is surprisingly the Mets against Ian Seymour.
Hitters like Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Francisco Alvarez, A.J. Ewing, and Marcus Semien have all looked very good against lefties like Seymour.
We have also seen Seymour slip a bit lately. He's leaving some meatballs in the zone and he's given up six homers in his last three starts.
For all of the Mets' struggles this year, their current lineup looks pretty good. The slow starts have been corrected, and Soto is back in that lineup.
I'm trusting the data here and riding some Mets runs. The Rays bullpen is a problem, but this Mets team total is just 3.5 with the over at +100. That feels like a line that should move to -125 or something as the day goes on, if not tick up to 4.5.
Pick: Mets Over 3.5 Runs +100
Second on this list is the Rays against Robert Stock. Stock has some decent stuff, but he does not locate it well and he's been hit hard in the Majors this year.
The Mets bullpen has also been depleted by injury and the trade deadline, so this game has some sneaky run-scoring potential.
Pick: Over 8 (-108)
Mariners vs Red Sox Picks
Cal Raleigh has turned it on, but he gets a tough customer in Payton Tolle in Boston tonight.
The young lefty has pitched to a 28% K% and a 6.9% BB% in the Majors. You'd think that righties would have more success against him, but he has struck out righties way more (31%) than lefties (19%).
Tolle looks like a budding ace in the Major Leagues, and this is a pretty good matchup for him against a bunch of righties on Seattle that can strike out.
All of that said, my projection model comes in with a 6.2-strikeout projection on Tolle. We know reverse splits aren't reliable over the long term.
A 31% K% against righties probably won't stay that high, and he's also a guy who's already pushed above his innings total from last year.
So the Red Sox have some reason to give him a quick hook if the game isn't going their way.
The line on Tolle is 7.5, and you can get the under for -152. That juice makes the line more on par with my projection, but the under is still recommended.
We shouldn't be betting on players as much as we should be betting on lines and odds.
Pick: Payton Tolle Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Brewers vs Cubs Picks
The winds have been howling in Wrigley lately, but the forecast looks muted today.
We have two pitchers of vastly different styles going at it. It's lefty Kyle Harrison and his high-strikeout for the Brewers, and then the pitch-to-contact righty Clay Holmes for the Cubs.
Harrison prevents runs by striking out almost a third of the hitters he faces, while Holmes does it by getting a ton of ground balls hit at that elite infield defense.
I like this matchup for both guys, and for some reason, we have a high 9.5-run total in this one. That doesn't make much sense to me with two great run preventers on the hill.
It's easy to like the Cubs' lineup right now, as they've scored the most runs in the league, Pete Crow-Armstrong is the clear MVP right now, and the rest of the lineup is humming right along too.
But Harrison can shut anybody down when his command is there, and he has an advantage facing PCA as a southpaw. So I'm on the under in this game.
Holmes has given up one run over his last 13 innings (three starts), and I think that can keep going tonight.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-113)
Athletics vs Rangers Picks
It does not get better than this spot for Rangers' ace Jacob deGrom.
He's coming off of a start where he gave up eight runs on six hits to a tougher White Sox lineup. He walked five in that one, which is very uncharacteristic of deGrom.
However, we've seen him bounce back well off of every blip this year, and this matchup must be circled on the calendar for any starting pitcher.
The Athletics' lineup is totally gross right now, having lost their four best hitters to injury.
They have a .674 team OPS on the road in the second half with a 25% K%. It's a dream spot for deGrom, who should be having himself a big game tonight at home, where he's pitched to a 2.67 ERA and 28% K-BB% this year.
Pick: deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115), Under 1.5 ER (-124)
White Sox vs Astros Picks
Peter Lambert hosts Anthony Kay in this one, a big game for two playoff contenders in the American League.
The angle to take here:
- Peter Lambert has a 13% BB% to lefties this year
- The White Sox should have seven lefties in this lineup
- The White Sox are a patient offense
Currently, bet365 has a 2.5 walk prop for Lambert, and I like that a lot at +150. The projection on Lambert is 2.6 walks, a very high number for a projection.
I'd keep an eye out for other books to see if they have better odds, but either way, I anticipate Lambert hitting this number.
Pick: Peter Lambert Over 2.5 BB (+150)
Home Run Parlay
Two of the best home run hitters in the league line up in beautiful spots tonight, so we're interested in the big payout on the home run parlay.
- Junior Caminero vs. Robert Stock: +320
- Kyle Schwarber vs. Brandon Pfaadt: +287
Parlay those together, and you get a +1525 payout if these two add to their lofty home run totals tonight, and they both have a great shot at doing so.
Strikeout Parlay
The lines to exploit tonight:
- Elmer Rodriguez over 4.5 (+127)
- Bryce Elder over 4.5 (+125)
My projections say both of these guys should be even money or worse on these totals, and you get a nice payout if my projections are correct.
It's about +450 depending on where you're shopping, so I'm taking that one too.
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 31
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Giants vs Braves — Over 8.5 Runs
- New York Mets Over 3.5 Total Runs
- Mets vs Rays — Over 8 Runs
- Payton Tolle Under 7.5 Strikeouts
- Brewers vs Cubs — Under 9.5 Runs
- Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
- Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 ER (-124)
- Peter Lambert Over in Walks
- Home Run Parlay
- Strikeout Parlay
