Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, June 22.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+440)
- Ben Rice Over 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts + Jasson Dominguez Over 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts (-115)
- Rays -1.5 (+122)
- Astros vs Blue Jays Over 7.5 (-100)
- Dodgers vs Twins Over 9.5 (-100)
- Gavin Williams Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-158)
- Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+135)
- Gavin Williams Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+275)
- Kyle Bradish Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
- Braves vs Padres Over 7.5 (-112)
Environmental Factors
All bettors should be aware of some things going on in baseball right now. We're into the middle of June, so the weather is reliably hot in U.S. cities. Offense follows a bell curve every year, with the hottest months (June-August) being the best for run scoring. But what we've seen in June has been really wild.
One good way to measure this is by looking at home run per fly-ball rate. Let's track it:
- Mar/Apr: 14.7%
- May: 14.3%
- June: 17.9%
There was that weird series in Las Vegas this month in a park that is nowhere near Major League standards. But if we take those six games out, the number is still a 17.3% HR/FB rate this month.
The league slugging percentage on fly balls is .878 in June. Prior to this month, it was .763. The league home run rate before June was 2.83%; that means a home run was hit in 2.83% of plate appearances. In June, it's 3.58%. It's been absolutely crazy this month, and it makes you wonder if there's more going on than just hotter temperatures. Here's a plot of the 15-day moving average in HR/FB:
Take out the games in Sacramento/Las Vegas entirely:
So we need to be extra careful when betting on pitchers, particularly when it comes to limiting runs.
Another note: I've recently published a simulation model that uses my projections over at MLB Data Warehouse, along with other important data, to power an app where you can simulate games and see what happens most often. That gives you a better idea of the tails of the distributions rather than just the median projection. I'll be using those results as we go through these games.
Yankees vs Tigers Picks
Does Gerrit Cole have an average fastball? That's what the numbers suggest. Some numbers on Cole's heater through 172 offerings:
- 100.2 Stuff+ (league average = 100)
- 8.1% Swinging Strike Rate (league average = 10.5%)
- 52% Strike Rate (Whiffs + Called + Fouls) (league average = 49%)
- 31% Ball% (league average = 34%)
- 96.6 mph (league average = 94.7)
So there are a lot of called strikes and foul balls on it. The velocity and command of the pitch have something to do with that, but those aren't stats to rely upon if you're a pitcher looking to be consistently productive at generating strikes. The slider has been good, but well shy of the elite arms in the league when it comes to piling up strikes and putaways on the breaker.
Tonight, Cole will take on a Tigers team that does have some strikeout in its game. Detroit owns a 23% team strikeout rate this year, about a point above the league average. Cole's over/under is 5.5 in the strikeout market, and that seems right to me. My projection is quite high in this spot at 7.3.
But I'm worried enough about Cole simply not being what he used to be after the injury, combined with the trouble pitchers have been having lately, that I don't want to get involved betting on the veteran righty.
The Tigers seem to have a big advantage when it comes to hitting the long ball tonight, which would sound crazy given that the Yankees have hit 28 more home runs this season. But Detroit sends Framber Valdez and his 52% ground-ball rate to the mound, and the lefty should neutralize plenty of the Yankees' biggest threats from the left side of the plate.
Framber vs. lefties this year: 28% K%, 7% BB%, .261 xwOBA
We have mid-70s temperatures with decently high humidity for this game, so I expect Cole's fastball to get hit into the stands once or twice. The most likely players to do that would be:
- Riley Greene +415 on DraftKings
- Kerry Carpenter +482 on DraftKings
- Dillon Dingler +563 on DraftKings
I like those home run bets. I also like to get into some hitter strikeout bets. The Yankees do a good bit of that against lefties. Going back to last year and looking at strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching:
- Jasson Dominguez 29% (-223 for a strikeout on DK)
- Jazz Chisholm 28% (-365)
- Ben Rice 27% (-290)
Those are the big three; the rest of the lineup isn't so bad. BetMGM and DraftKings typically offer batter strikeout lines, so I'd look there and see if you want to mix some 1+ strikeout lines into parlays.
Picks: Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+440), Ben Rice Over 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts + Jasson Dominguez Over 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts (-115, Parlay)
Royals vs Rays Picks
The weather doesn't matter in this one; we've got a closed-dome situation, and the Rays send their ace, Drew Rasmussen, to the bump. Rasmussen has a 24% K-BB% over his last eight starts. He has 84 strikeouts and just 13 walks this year. The pitch counts are still typically around 80-90, but it doesn't matter for this guy because he's so good and so efficient. He's gone seven innings in three straight starts, giving up all of one earned run over those 21 innings.
The lines are going to be juiced on him. Rasmussen is well known now.
The Rays are a huge favorite at -194 with the O/U set at 7.5. The Royals send Michael Wacha to the hill, and he hasn't been good this year. He had it going early in the season, but the league has warmed up and now he isn't doing much well. He has a 16.5% K% over his last seven starts with a terrible 44% Strike%. The ball is getting put into play a ton against him because, while he does buckle down and throw strikes when he needs to, he has posted just a 5.6% BB% during that span.
So the Rays are going to pile up some hits here, and I think they win the game comfortably. They don't hit many homers, so they'll need to hit well with runners on base. But I believe.
The Rays win this game 64% of the time in the sims. The average score is Rays 4.7, Royals 3.4. Let's build a little Rays-happy parlay for this one, because everything is pointing in their direction.
- Jonathan Aranda 2+ H+R+RBI
- Yandy Diaz 2+ H+R+RBI
- Rays Moneyline (-190)
That gives you +204 on DraftKings for a 3:1 return on your money.
But maybe you just want to be a Rays fan tonight!
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+122)
Astros vs Blue Jays Picks
Hunter Brown goes into Toronto, but we don't know who he'll be squaring off against. It was supposed to be Shane Bieber, but with the PPD yesterday, we're likely to see Dylan Cease start this one.
That hasn't been announced yet, though. Maybe they'll want to keep Bieber on schedule and roll him out there tonight. I doubt it, but I wanted to highlight the possibility. The sportsbooks seem to think it will be Dylan Cease, so that's how we should approach it.
These are the types of speculative lines you can attack. The O/U on this game is set at 7.5, and the over is available at +110 on some sites. If Toronto announces that Bieber is making this start, that number would likely jump by at least a run, and probably 1.5. Bieber is bad. He walked four and allowed five earned runs on seven hits in his last rehab outing. Last year in the majors, he gave up eight home runs in seven starts (1.8 HR/9).
I think you can bet Over 7.5 and feel like it's a coin flip if Cease starts. If Bieber starts, it's a smash. But the most likely outcome is that Cease gets the ball and we see a quality pitchers' duel between him and Brown.
Hunter Brown returned and threw 92 pitches on June 16, his first start since the very beginning of the year. He generated 12 whiffs, but the command was really off (42.4% Ball%, three walks). I think the Blue Jays can do some damage against him in this start.
Pick: Over 7.5 (but mostly because we don't know for sure if Cease is starting right now)
Dodgers vs Twins Picks
This is Eric Lauer vs. Zebby Matthews. And this game is the highest-scoring affair in the sim model. The sims have the Dodgers winning 6.3 to 5.4, for a total of nearly 12 runs.
And I think that's because both offenses match up very well with the pitching they're facing tonight.
Zebby is a bad righty taking on the Dodgers. That almost never goes well. He's also a fly-ball pitcher, which is even more terrifying given the HR/FB trend we've identified.
Eric Lauer has really rough splits this year. He's struck out just 14.7% of righties while allowing a .353 xwOBA and carrying a tiny 29% ground-ball rate. He gets hit in the air so, so much against righties. And the Twins project to have nine righties in the lineup. That's the entire lineup, you guys.
The top two projected hitters in the sims are Shohei Ohtani and Byron Buxton. Only those two and Jackson Chourio project for more than 12 DraftKings points tonight. So the leadoff men are likely to feast, and there are plenty of other threats in these lineups given the matchups.
So first of all:
Pick: Over 9.5 (-100)
But if you want to go for the high-upside home run parlay, which I know a lot of you do, I like Buxton + Ohtani, even though they are both ridiculously priced at +201. If that duo hits, you're at just +750 together. But they're the top two projected home run hitters today by a good margin.
Guardians vs White Sox Picks
The BUY signal is lit up on Gavin Williams. He's gone through a rough patch with a 4.84 ERA over his last eight starts, and he's coming off a really rough outing in which he gave up seven earned runs to the Brewers. Now comes the good news. Over that span:
- 25.3% K%
- 5.6% BB%
- 15.3% SwStr%
- 32.4% Ball%
He is throwing strikes, and he is still getting a bunch of whiffs. He just hasn't been able to put guys away (40% Strike% in two-strike counts, which is an astounding 10 points below his overall average during this stretch), and he hasn't had any good fortune when the ball has been put into play (12.1% Brl% allowed, resulting in six home runs).
The White Sox are lacking raw power with Murakami on the shelf. Colson Montgomery is doing his part, but the rest of the lineup is pretty weak relative to the current environment in Major League Baseball. So I like Williams' chances in this one. If he just keeps doing what he's been doing, with normal "luck" measures, he'll be a pretty awesome pitcher for the Guardians.
But he probably won't get much run support. With Jose Ramirez out right now, this Guardians lineup looks rough. Cleveland owns an OPS near the bottom of the league in June, barely above .650. Only three teams are worse this month. And it's even worse against lefties. If we go back to the middle of May, when they still had J-Ram, they're hitting .217/.308/.327 against left-handed pitching with seven home runs. That's tied for the third fewest in baseball over that span, and Cleveland has seen the third-most plate appearances against lefties during that time.
So that's all good news for Anthony Kay. He's no All-Star, but he's proven capable of hanging in the big leagues with a 3.78 SIERA over his last seven starts.
PROJECTIONS
- Williams: 6.1 IP, 4.9 H, 2.6 ER, 6.8 K, 2.3 BB
- Kay: 4.2 IP, 4.9 H, 2.6 ER, 4.6 K, 2.3 BB
SIM RESULTS:
- Guardians win 51% of games
- Average total of 8.55 runs
Nothing really stands out here. The sim is mostly in line with the over/under of eight. But I'm looking for opportunities to bet on Gavin Williams. The lines are loosening up after the rough patch he's had, and we should jump on that.
Picks: Gavin Williams Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-158), Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+135), Gavin Williams Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+275)
Orioles vs Angels Picks
It's a Kyle Bradish night for the O's. This one comes five days after he racked up 18 whiffs and 12 strikeouts against the Mariners. That was his first start with more than seven strikeouts since May 8. So what happened last time? Was there any change we can rely on to stick in this juicy matchup with the Halos? It looks like the answer is yes, as his Stuff+ jumped to a season-high 107 in that outing.
Something happened with the curveball. The Stuff+ on that pitch jumped to 125.3, a season high by far. He also posted a 27.6% SwStr% on the pitch. His slider was excellent as well. It could have been a one-time blip, or maybe it had something to do with the park factor in Seattle.
Now he gets this Angels lineup, which doesn't have Mike Trout and still carries plenty of swing-and-miss. Check out some of the strikeout rates for the projected lineup:
- Christian Moore 35%
- Logan O'Hoppe 31%
- Denzer Guzman 29%
- Zach Neto 28%
- Jo Adell 26%
- Jose Siri 24%
Those are splits against right-handed pitching dating back to last year. Bradish has immense strikeout upside in this spot. If he maintains whatever gains he found in his last start, it could be another double-digit strikeout feast.
He's the No. 1 scoring pitcher in the sim model today. He edges out Gerrit Cole, Gavin Williams, Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown for the top spot.
Picks: Kyle Bradish Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Braves vs Padres Picks
This total is sitting at 7.5. That immediately stood out to me. These pitchers aren't good:
- Michael King: 10.9% K-BB%
- Grant Holmes: 10.5% K-BB%
They both walk 10% of hitters and have below-average strikeout rates. Totals are typically low in San Diego because it's a difficult park for hitters, and the Padres have not been scoring runs. Both bullpens are pretty elite, so we'll need to get the runs early.
But the park is not immune to the hotter temperatures. It owns a 43% HR/Brl% on the season, but that number has climbed to 49% over the last month (604 balls in play). Some of the Padres bats seem to be waking up. The Braves have struggled recently as well, but the season comes in waves — and that's still a very good lineup we would expect to get going.
My sim model has this game scoring 10.4 runs. The raw projections have it at 8.9. Both numbers tower above the 7.5 total currently available.
Maybe this line will move up by the time this article gets published, but this is a massive green light. Go jump on it if it's still out there.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-112)
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 22
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- Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+440)
- Ben Rice Over 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts + Jasson Dominguez Over 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts (-115)
- Rays -1.5 (+122)
- Astros vs Blue Jays Over 7.5 (-100)
- Dodgers vs Twins Over 9.5 (-100)
- Gavin Williams Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-158)
- Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+135)
- Gavin Williams Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+275)
- Kyle Bradish Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
- Braves vs Padres Over 7.5 (-112)
