MLB Picks Today | Dodgers vs Padres Betting Preview (Wednesday, September 28)

MLB Picks Today | Dodgers vs Padres Betting Preview (Wednesday, September 28) article feature image

Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds

Dodgers Odds-140
Padres Odds+120
Time9:40 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

While all eyes of the baseball world will continue to watch Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge as he chases Roger Maris' American League home run record of 61, the playoff picture is starting to take shape as the season comes to a close.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will definitely make an appearance during October baseball as the Dodgers were the first team in the league to clinch a playoff spot.

The Padres have yet to clinch one of the wild card spots in the National League, but they have a four game lead in the loss column with little more than a week left in the season.

Will they be able to take another step towards the playoffs with a victory over the Dodgers tonight?

Musgrove Matches Up Well

Joe Musgrove has a 3.12 ERA and a 4.03 xFIP. He's completed at least five innings in four of his last five starts and has a 3.24 ERA at home.

Los Angeles is first in all of baseball averaging 5.30 runs per game on the road this year. The Padres are 41-32 (.562 WP) at home this year.

Musgrove has a 24% K%, but Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger are the only hitters in the Dodgers projected lineup with a K% above 20% this year.

Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Gallo and Bellinger all have ISOs above .196 against right-handed pitching this season.

Musgrove has allowed a .177 ISO to right-handed hitters this year.

Urias Better On Road

Dodgers ace pitcher Julio Urias has followed up his 20 win season from a year ago with 17 wins and a 2.25 ERA this year.

Still, Urias' xFIP is 4.41. His left on base percentage this year is 85% compared to his career LOB% of 77% and his 76% LOB% last year. Urias has also allowed a .227 BABIP compared to his career .269 BABIP and his .272 BABIP last year.

By ERA, Urias has been better on the road as he has a 2.07 ERA on the road this year.

San Diego is 12th in all of baseball averaging 3.81 runs per game at home this year.

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Dodgers-Padres Pick

While Urias is pitching over his head as his xFIP indicates, he's still a very good pitcher. He's been even better on the road this year and the Padres aren't a dominant home team.

While the game means more to San Diego in the standings, the odds reflect that and I'm going with the Dodgers. Los Angeles still has the edge at the plate and on the mound in this matchup.

I took the Dodgers moneyline at -140 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pick: Dodgers ML -140

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