MLB Player Prop Odds & Picks: Fading Jacob deGrom’s Strikeout Total (Wednesday, April 28)
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom
- All 30 teams take the field on Wednesday in a loaded slate for Major League Baseball.
- Jacob deGrom is back on the mound, looking to maintain his blistering pace, while Tyler Glasnow hopes to do the same in Tampa.
- See which of the two aces Kevin Davis is buying today and which one he is fading.
With a large slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Today, there are two unders I like on the strikeout totals for two strong pitchers.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 19-15, +1.47 Units, +4.3% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Jacob deGrom Under 10.5 Strikeouts (-115)
|Red Sox vs. Mets||NYM -265|
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
The New York Mets are heavily favored against the Boston Red Sox because of Jacob deGrom. New York certainly should be heavily favored, and I am betting on their -1.5 run line because of him. Despite this, deGrom’s strikeout total is set too high at 10.5 strikeouts.
I have been burned by deGrom before by pointing out that while deGrom is one of the best players in the league, his strikeout total props have been set at unrealistically high levels.
In his last game his total was at 9.5 strikeouts and he had 15 strikeouts in a complete game. Today, his total is set at 10.5 strikeouts, which is too good to pass up going for another under pick.
Currently, deGrom is averaging an unsustainable 15.52 strikeouts per nine innings. For the rest of the season, deGrom is projected by FanGraphs to average only 11.61 strikeouts per nine innings. With deGrom’s current strikeout rate, he would have to pitch for 6 1/3 innings to have 11 or more strikeouts in a game.
However, with deGrom’s projected strikeout rate, he would have to pitch 8 2/3 innings to have 11 or more strikeouts. I believe that deGrom will revert to the mean and strike out fewer than 10.5 batters tonight. That is why I like the under.
Pick: Jacob deGrom Under 10.5 Strikeouts (-115). Would play up to -130 (PointsBet)
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-103)
|Athletics vs. Rays||TBR -167|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Over the past few years, Glasnow has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.
One of his strengths is his high strikeout rate. In 2020, Glasnow averaged 14.28 strikeouts per nine innings. This season, he is averaging 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Even the relatively conservative FanGraphs projections have him finishing the season averaging 12.85 strikeouts per nine innings. Despite Glasnow’s high strikeout rate, his strikeout total at 8.5 strikeouts is set too high.
On a typical day, Glasnow would have to last 6 1/3 innings to have nine or more strikeouts. Currently, Glasnow is averaging about six innings per start, but in the past he has not gone as deep into games. In 2020, Glasnow averaged less than 5 1/3 innings per start. In 2019, Glasnow averaged around five innings per start. Based on Glasnow not getting enough usage, I believe that he strikes out eight or fewer batters tonight.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-103). Would play up to -115 (DraftKings)
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 7
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