MLB Odds, Player Props: Thursday Picks for Justin Steele, Kodai Senga, Paul Goldschmidt
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Steele
- Today's MLB slate is a small one, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value on player props.
- Alex Hinton came through with three props, including picks for Justin Steele, Kodai Senga, Paul Goldschmidt and Ian Happ.
- Check out all Hinton's player props for Thursday's MLB games below.
Today will feature one of the shortest slates of the season with just five games, two of which will be played in Detroit for a doubleheader between the Angels and Tigers. I will be focusing on two for today's column: Nationals–Mets and Cubs–Cardinals.
In his first season in MLB, Kodai Senga has emerged as one of the top strikeouts artists in the MLB. Tonight, we may have a favorable line for him.
Last weekend, the Cubs took three of four games from the Cardinals in Chicago. The Cardinals will be looking to return the favor as star Paul Goldschmidt came alive in Arizona. However, the Cubs will send top starter Justin Steele to the mound and will be bringing a hot offense into St. Louis.
MLB Player Props For Thursday, July 27
Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
|Nationals vs. Mets|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
Kodai Senga has a 11.4 K/9 and 125 strikeouts in 99 innings. He has struck out six or more batters in eight of his last 10 starts and 14 of 18 this season. In his last start, he was unable to continue his streak as a rain delay and eventual game suspension limited him to 3 1/3 innings.
If Senga starts a new streak, he will do so in a tough matchup. The Nationals are 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. That may be part of the reason this line is at 5.5 strikeouts. However, Senga struck out seven in his only start against the Nationals this season.
That start was also at Citi Field where Senga has been more comfortable this year. He has a 2.50 ERA there (4.07 on the road) and 66 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings. The Nationals got off to slow starts in all three games against the Rockies. Senga offers a much tougher assignment, and if he dominates through the first five or six innings as well, he will likely do so with strikeouts.
I would feel comfortable with this play if it moves to 6.5 before you are able to bet it.
Pick: Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)
|Cubs vs. Cardinals|
|First Pitch||7:45 p.m. ET|
Justin Steele is enjoying a breakout season with a 10-3 record and a 2.95 ERA. He has punched out 96 batters in 103 1/3 innings. For the season, Steele is averaging 5.3 strikeouts per game. Over his last five starts, he has struck out at least six four times. Two of those starts came against the Cardinals.
The hitter-friendly conditions in London last month could not derail Steele, as he had eight strikeouts against the Cardinals. He also struck out nine against the Cardinals last Friday. Steele has averaged 6.7 strikeouts per start against the Cardinals this season and has gone over this line in two of three starts.
With a lineup heavy on right-handed hitters, most notably Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, you may be surprised that the Cardinals are ninth in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. They also ranked second in the category last year.
This sets up as a plus matchup for Steele and may even offer some value as well. Steele has recorded eight strikeouts in two starts against the Cardinals this season and in five starts total.
According to props.cash, the odds of Steele getting eight strikeouts is +260. However, FanDuel is offering eight at +430, which is great value if he is able to dominate them again.
Ian Happ/Paul Goldschmidt One Hit Parlay (-115)
|Cubs vs. Cardinals|
|First Pitch||7:45 p.m. ET|
Steele will be backed by a Cubs offense that is averaging nearly eight runs per game since the All-Star break. Ian Happ has been a contributor, particularly over the past eight games. Happ has a hit in six of his past eight games, including three of four against the Cardinals. In that span, he is hitting .285 with two home runs and five runs batted in.
Happ has recorded a hit in six of nine games against the Cardinals this season. Tonight, he will face right-hander Miles Mikolas, who gave up 11 hits in five innings against the Cubs last Saturday. Happ went 2-for-3 with a double against Mikolas and is 10-for-34 (.294) against him in his career.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 7-4 in their last 11 games and Paul Goldschmidt has been a big reason. Goldschmidt has a hit in nine of his last 11 games, including five multi-hit games. In that span, he is hitting .311 with three home runs and nine runs batted in. He had a hit in two of the three games in the series against the Cubs last week along with six of eight games this season.
Goldschmidt is 5-for-16 (.313) with a home run and three runs batted in against Steele. He is also hitting .325 against left-handed pitchers this season. One hit apiece from Happ and Goldschmidt will cash this combo for us.
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