MLB Player Props: Monday Picks for Chris Paddack, More (July 8)

MLB Player Props: Monday Picks for Chris Paddack, More (July 8) article feature image

We finished the weekend with a 7-2 record. Now, we are looking to carry that momentum into this week, and I've got three more starters who are going to help with that today.

So, let's get to our MLB player props for Monday, July 8 — featuring picks for Christian Scott, Mitch Keller, and Chris Paddack.

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MLB Player Props: Monday, July 8

  • Christian Scott Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130, BetRivers)
  • Mitch Keller Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-160, DraftKings)
  • Chris Paddack Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130, bet365)
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Monday, Jul 8
12:35 p.m. ET
SportsNet PT
Christian Scott Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

The results may not be there on paper yet, but we've seen flashes of the upside from the Mets' rookie starter, Christian Scott. Scott comes into this outing with a 4.32 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in six major league starts.

In the minors, Scott was highly efficient at putting away hitters as he struck out 55 batters and walked just 12 this year in Triple-A. This afternoon, he finally gets a matchup where he can show his put-away stuff.

Scott will face the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. It also helps that they are 27th in wRC+ as well,  so Scott should be attacking the zone.

Look for Scott to show why he was the Mets' top pitching prospect this afternoon.

Monday, Jul 8
12:35 p.m. ET
SportsNet PT
Mitch Keller Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-160)

We are going to stay in Pittsburgh, except we are switching sides. We are turning our attention to Pirates starter Mitch Keller.

Keller has been excellent this season, entering this outing with a 3.48 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 17 starts. However, those numbers are about to change.

Keller is due for some sizable regression as his xERA is a half-run higher than his actual ERA, and his xFIP is .34 higher than his current FIP.

Impending regression is not something you want to take into a matchup against the New York Mets right now. The Mets rank second in wRC+ against righties over the past 15 games and fourth over the past 30 games.

In addition to all this, Keller has rarely worked past six innings. He has gone under this number in 76% of starts this season and 82% of his last 80 starts.

The juice is worth the squeeze when fading Keller today.

Monday, Jul 8
8:10 p.m. ET
Chris Paddack Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Rounding out our card will be Minnesota Twins starter Chris Paddack. Paddack is making his first start since June 21, and is being overlooked in a great matchup.

He may not have very pretty peripheral numbers with a 5.29 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, but he has shown the ability to generate strikeouts. Paddack's chase rate is in the 68th percentile, and three of his four pitches have whiff rates above 24%.

So, it's clear his stuff has been effective, and he is in line to rack up more strikeouts. That should begin tonight in his return against the Chicago White Sox — the White Sox rank 10th in strikeout rate against righties and last in wRC+.

Paddack has a great matchup and implied odds on his side. Paddack has gone over this total in nine of 15 starts this season.

If he goes five innings tonight, we should expect him to surpass this number comfortably.

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