The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 5, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Brewers are favored by -131 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction
- Pirates vs Brewers Pick: Paul Skenes Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-117, DraftKings)
My Pirates vs Brewers best bet is on Paul Skenes to go under his outs total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Brewers Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +165 | 7.5 -107o / -113u | +114 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -200 | 7.5 -107o / -113u | -131 |
- Pirates vs Brewers moneyline: Pirates +114, Brewers -131
- Pirates vs Brewers over/under: 7.5 (-107o / -113u)
- Pirates vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+165 ), Pirates +1.5 (-200)
Pirates vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) | Stat | LHP Kyle Harrison (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-9 | W-L | 8-2 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 3.90/2.94 | ERA / xERA | 3.01/3.14 |
| 2.91/3.12 | FIP / xFIP | 3.10/3.13 |
| 24.2% | K-BB% | 23.8% |
| 39.7% | GB% | 37.1% |
| .310 | BABIP | .291 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 108 | Location+ | 115 |
Pirates vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Since his debut in 2024, Paul Skenes' starts have been appointment-viewing television. In many of his starts, he did not receive run support, resulting in losses or no decisions despite a sub-2.00 ERA in his first two seasons. This season, the Pirates are third in MLB in runs scored, yet the team still went through a nine-game losing streak and 11 of his past 14 starts.
Skenes has gone from a 1.96 ERA and 217 ERA+ over his first two seasons to a 3.90 ERA and 110 ERA+ this season. He has allowed four earned runs in four of his past six starts. Some have questioned his health, but there have been no reports from him or the team.
He is due for a bit of a positive regression, with an expected FIP of 3.12 and an expected ERA of 2.94. He has maintained a healthy strikeout rate as well, fanning seven or more in each of his last four starts.
Offensively, the Pirates have been a balanced group, with six players already in double digits and six with at least an .800 OPS. However, one of the biggest surprises has been Esmerlyn Valdez, who began the season as the team's No. 9 prospect. The 22-year-old has hit 14 home runs in 150 at-bats and has a .973 OPS. He has cooled a bit off of late, but has 1.5 WAR this season and has entered the discussion for NL Rookie of the Year with JJ Wetherholt, Sal Stewart, and Nolan McLean.
Brandon Lowe is the team's leader with 23 home runs this season, but tonight may not be the best game for him with a tough lefty on the mound, as he has a .601 OPS against them. Nick Gonzales had been swinging a hot bat, but he is 0-for-16 since his 15-game hitting streak ended.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Teams locking up their young talent to pre-arbitration extensions have become a trend in recent years, and the Brewers have been at the forefront of it with Jackson Chourio and more recently, Luis Lara and Cooper Pratt. However, it may be hard for many of these extensions to match the value the Brewers have already gotten from Chourio.
Last night, he went 3-for-4 and hit his 14th home run of the season while driving in two runs. In doing so, he recorded his 200th career RBI at just 22 years old. He already has two 20/20 seasons under his belt, and a third is in reach as he has 14 home runs and 10 stolen bases this season.
Chourio helped the Brewers to a 4-2 victory last night to even the series. They became the first team to 70 wins and have a 1.5-game lead on the Dodgers for the top seed in the NL. However, whether they will be the No. 1 team in the NL in October remains to be seen.
The Dodgers once again made a big-time acquisition as they acquired Tarik Skubal from the Tigers as well as Kris Bubic from the Royals in an under-the-radar move. The Brewers were in on Skubal, but decided to hang on to their top prospects and prevent a pairing with Jacob Misioworski. They did add Dustin May to add innings to the backend of their rotation.
A pair of youngsters who may already be in their top three are Logan Henderson and Kyle Harrison. Henderson struck out eight in six innings last night and won his sixth decision in his last eight starts. Harrison had been a revelation since being acquired from the Red Sox before going on the IL. He will be making his first start since July 8th and is 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 83 and 2/3 innings this season.
Pirates vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
Skenes has won both of his starts against the Brewers this season, but went just 5 and 1/3 innings in the latter one a few weeks. The Pirates were up comfortably, so there was not much reason to push him in that start. However, he has failed to complete six innings in three of his last four starts against the Brewers.
Skenes has also gone under this line in five of his last seven starts, dropping his season hit rate to 43%, a notable decline from 66% last season. He has issued two walks in five of his last seven starts, including four walks in his last start against the Reds.
The Brewers are fourth in walk rate against right-handed pitchers and do not offer many easy at-bats. A few lengthy at-bats in addition to the Brewers scoring figures to drive up Skenes' pitch count and finish this outing with less than 18 outs recorded.
Pick: Paul Skenes Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-117, DraftKings)
