MLB Player Props Picks Today | 2 Bets for Jeffrey Springs, Eduardo Rodriguez (Tuesday, October 4)

There are only two days left in the MLB regular season. That means there are only two days left to bet on a full slate of MLB player props using our Action Labs Projections.

Thanks to our internal projections, I've found two pitchers I'm backing today in the strikeout market.

Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)

Jeffrey Springs has been on a tear in the second half of the season. He's pitched to a 2.14 ERA and a 2.36 FIP since the calendar flipped to August.

The Rays are 8-3 in his starts while in the middle of a tight wild-card race.

Springs has become one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, so it's a great time to hammer his strikeout total over, and maybe bet the Rays today.

It must hurt even more considering his opponent today.

But I'm not even sweating this player prop number. Springs has hit over 4.5 Ks in 18 of his 21 starts this season. He posted 13 strikeouts in two starts against the Red Sox this season, picking up a 33.5% CSW rate along the way.

The Red Sox can hit southpaws hard, but have become strikeout happy against the side. Boston has the seventh-highest strikeout rate against LHPs this season (24%) and the third-highest over the last 30 days (27.3%).

Meanwhile, Springs ranks above the 80th percentile in Swinging Strike Rate (13.7%) and above the 95th percentile in Chase Rate.

Watch out for his change, as it's forced a 38.3% Whiff Rate this season.

The projection systems are all over Springs tonight, as well.

• The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 7.4 Ks
• Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 5.6 Ks
• FanGraphs' SaberSim Projections: 5.8 Ks

This is my favorite strikeout total of the night.

Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-155)

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

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Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Eduardo Rodriguez has had troubles this season. He's been on and off the injury list. He's failed to communicate with his team or manager. He's only managed 16 starts and 85 innings after signing a mega deal in the offseason.

But Rodriguez was a low-FIP guy in Boston, and I still believe he can turn it around.

He posted a whopping 11 strikeouts in his final tune-up start with the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens in late August. He's managed a respectable four starts in September — even if it hasn't been miraculous — and recently held the Royals scoreless over 6 2/3 innings.

Rodriguez's changeup seems to be working, too.

Rodriguez can strike guys out. He's done so in nine of his 16 starts this year. Plus, I love this matchup with a Seattle team that's already clinched a postseason berth.

Rodriguez has struck out 56 in 56 career innings against the Mariners. He's struck out 19 over his last three starts and 17 innings against them.

While Seattle's strikeout numbers aren't extraordinarily high, the Mariners have been a cash cow for southpaw pitchers. The Mariners have allowed 19 of the past 27 opposing starting LHPs to go over their strikeout total, and that includes three straight.

This is a good buy-low spot for Rodriguez and a good sell-high spot for Seattle.

The projections agree:

• The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 5.3 Ks
• Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 4.4 Ks
• FanGraphs' SaberSim Projections: 5.0 Ks

Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-160)

Action Labs Grade: 10/10