MLB Player Props Today | PrizePicks Plays For Mookie Betts, Riley Greene, More (Saturday, October 1)
John McCoy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman
Saturday's MLB slate features 16 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Michael Grove Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Through six appearances this season, Michael Grove is 1-0 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are not the greatest, his metrics suggest that positive regression is around the corner as he boasts a .261 xwOBA, .204 xBA and .338 xSLG.
We are getting a low number with this prop because he has only eclipsed this total once, which was on September 20 when he struck out seven hitters across five innings against the Diamondbacks. However, he has never faced a team that strikes out as frequently as the Rockies.
When facing right-handed pitching, Colorado ranks 29th in the league in K% since the beginning of September. Looking at their projected lineup for tonight's game, the Rockies have six guys who possess a K% north of 20%.
Mookie Betts Hitter Fantasy Score Under 8
We are also fading a couple of Dodgers hitters in this game as they are slated to go against left-hander Kyle Freeland. These fades are certainly not a backing of Freeland, who is definitely not the strongest pitcher in baseball.
But rather, we are backing the specific matchup as well as the fact that the Dodgers may sit their stars after a few at-bats once again. Los Angeles has nothing left to play for in the regular season as they have already clinched home-field advantage for the entire playoffs.
Now that they have done so, they are starting to take It easy with the big names. We saw this in last night's game against Colorado when Betts was benched after six innings.
If he is only going to get a few plate appearances against Freeland in this contest, then I like him to go under this total. Through 27 career plate appearances against the left-hander, Betts possesses a .192 BA and .272 wOBA.
We do not have to worry about positive regression in this matchup as he has posted a .194 xBA and .265 xwOBA through those 27 appearances.
Freddie Freeman Hitter Fantasy Score Under 7.5
We are also going to be fading Freeman in this matchup. Like Betts, the star first baseman was pulled early as he did not even see the sixth inning.
If he only has a few at-bats to get over this total, then I like him to go under. Through 27 career plate appearances against Freeland, Freeman possesses a .261 BA, .391 SLG and .314 wOBA.
Also like Betts, we should not expect positive regression in this specific matchup as he has posted a .199 xBA, .300 xSLG, and .263 xwOBA through those 27 appearances. When facing left-handed pitching this season, Freeman's numbers drop by approximately 25%.
Riley Greene Over 0.5 Runs + RBI
Through 28 starts this season, Dylan Bundy is 8-8 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Entering this game in particularly poor form, he is 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over his last four starts.
This stretch of poor pitching should continue against Detroit. Across six career starts against the Tigers, Bundy is 0-2 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
The first Tigers batter we are backing is Riley Greene. While Greene has never faced Bundy in his career, he should be able to get the job done.
Entering this game in great form, the Tigers' prospect has collected nine hits, four runs, and four RBI over his last seven games. Projected to bat in the leadoff spot, Greene should have plenty of opportunities to contribute to the scoring of this contest.
Tucker Barnhart Over 0.5 Total Bases
The other Tigers hitter we are backing in this game is Barnhart. All we need is one hit from the catcher, who has recorded nine hits over his last seven contests.
While Barnhart is 0-for-3 against Bundy in his career, we should expect some positive regression in this specific matchup as he boasts a .255 xBA, .449 xSLG, and .296 xwOBA across those three at-bats. Since 2020, Barnhart's numbers jump up by approximately 13% when facing right-handed pitching.
Like most hitters, his numbers also take a jump when playing at home (+7% since 2020). When looking at projected lineups for this game, some have Barnhart starting and some do not.
If he does not get the start, this PrizePicks stack simply turns into a four-leg flex play.
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