MLB Playoff Picks, Best Bets Odds for Game 3 of ALDS Astros vs Mariners
Pictured: Cal Raleigh. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
- The Astros and Mariners meet in Game 3 of the ALDS this afternoon in Seattle.
- Houston will send Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound, while the Mariners will counter with George Kirby.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets for this pivotal AL West playoff game.
Astros vs. Mariners Game 3 Odds
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Houston Astros have jumped out to a 2-0 series lead, but the Mariners are hosting their first playing game since 2001 and the atmosphere will be electric in Seattle on Saturday.
Will the home crowd help lift the Mariners to a win? Well, that remains to be seen, but our MLB analysts are both backing the Mariners on Saturday. We have a pair of best bets for ALDS Game 3 and they're both in favor of Seattle.
MLB Odds & Picks
Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-106)
Odds via FanDuel
DJ James: The Houston Astros main offensive weakness is hitting right-handed pitching. Since August 1 — only factoring in the regular season — the Astros only held a 98 wRC+ and a sub-.700 OPS against right handers.
However, prior to August 1, the Astros mashed against right handers. So, what will happen when Houston faces George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners in Game 3?
Kirby had a 3.39 ERA and a 3.31 xERA during the regular season, so he is more than serviceable. He is below average at preventing hard contact as he ranks in the 28th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 44th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. He also ranks in the 96th percentile in walk rate and is above average in striking batters out.
Kirby will face Lance McCullers, who, in limited activity, has a 2.27 ERA and a 3.57 xERA. McCullers has yet to face the Mariners, who have a 109 wRC+ against righties since August 1.
The Houston bullpen is strong top-to-bottom, but Seattle’s is also solid and should keep the Mariners in the game.
Seattle First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-115)
Odds via FanDuel
Mike Ianniello: After two thrilling games to begin this series, Yordan Alvarez leads the series over the Seattle Mariners 2-0. In Game 1, the Mariners took a 7-3 lead into the eighth inning before a heart-breaking collapse. A great performance from Luis Castillo in Game 2 gave the Mariners a 2-1 lead into the sixth inning, but an Alvarez blast gave Houston the lead and win for the second time in as many games.
The good news for the Mariners is they will return to T-Mobile Park for Game 3. This will be the first home playoff game for the Mariners in 21 years and that crowd is sure to be rocking all game long.
Seattle’s offense really came to life as this season went on and we're backing them to strike early in this one. The Mariners finished the year ranked eighth in wRC+ and were fourth in the league since the start of September. They have been more patient at the plate, and also have the highest walk rate in the league over that stretch.
Through their first four playoff games, the Mariners have scored 23 runs on a combination of 14 walks and 18 extra-base hits. Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh have been the unlikely stars so far, with seven RBIs between the two of them.
The Mariners have averaged 5.75 runs per game in the postseason and have gotten things done with a balance of 3.5 walks and 4.5 extra base hits per game. They also lead the postseason with 13 doubles.
What is even more impressive is they have done this while still waiting on the Julio Rodriguez “welcome to the postseason” moment. The rookie had a 159 wRC+ with 15 dingers at home this season. They can also get a big game from All-Star Ty France, who is 6-for-12 in his career against Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr.
McCullers missed almost the entire season with a forearm injury. He finally made his debut on August 13 and started eight games to end the year.
In those eight starts, McCullers went 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA and allowed a .294 xwOBA to opponents. The good sign for McCullers is he wasn’t held to a pitch count and allowed more than two runs just once. However, his 2.27 ERA and 3.57 xERA show that there's more to the story. He has an 11.3% walk rate, one of the highest in the league.
Five of McCullers' eight starts came in Houston and in his three road outings, he allowed at least two runs in each of them.
The Mariners have scored 13 runs in the first five innings during this postseason and have gone over this number in three of four games. Behind the juice of this Seattle crowd, I like the Mariners to get to McCullers early and give the fans plenty to cheer about. Take Seattle's first five team total over 1.5 and play it to 2.