MLB Playoff Odds, Picks | Same Game Parlay for Yankees vs Guardians Game 4
Joe Sargent/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Oscar Gonzalez #39 of the Cleveland Guardians.
Yankees vs. Guardians Game 4 Odds
|Time||7:07 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Gerrit Cole will have all the pressure in the world Sunday as he looks to extend the Yankees once dominant season, and is priced like a true-ace here with the Yankees at -175 to win the game, and a total of 6.5.
And although Cal Quantrill and the Guardians enter as fairly heavy underdogs in this spot, Cleveland will surely feel confident considering Quantrill's ridiculous run of dominance at home.
We have seen home crowds seemingly make a big difference this weekend, driving a number of crooked innings for the Padres and Yankees, and I'm going to play for that type of angle against Cole in our single game-parlay today, and the hope the Yankees ace stumbles early.
The Parlay (+650, Bet365):
- Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts (6.5 On FanDuel)
- Gerrit Cole Over 1.5 Earned Runs
- Jose Ramirez 0ver 0.5 Bases (1.5 on FanDuel)
- Guardians Moneyline
A simpler variation of the parlay featuring just Cole Over 1.5 earned runs, under 5.5 strikeouts, and a Guardians win is priced at +500, and I also believe splitting the small stake we will use on this long-shot to try and hit that is a good option.
Playing for both starters to get shelled is another option I considered especially for some super long-odds plays, but this is my favorite variation that I found.
Same-Game Parlay – Yankees vs. Guardians Game 4
Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts + Over 1.5 Earned Runs
It makes sense to pair these two together as we are hoping to see each of these props fall in unison, with the obvious expectation that Cole gets a super short leash in this elimination spot.
If Cole allows over 1.5 earned runs that will likely mean an early pull from the contest the vast majority of the time, so if Cleveland can get to Cole early, we should see both these birds killed with one stone.
Cole pitched quite well in Game 1 at home, but it certainly could've gone differently looking towards an early bases loaded jam, something closer to his nightmare outing in last year's Wild Card game versus Boston in which Cole allowed three earned runs while managing just six outs.
Cleveland's has struck-out at the lowest rate league wide versus right-handed pitching this season at just 17.3%, and it's death by a million cuts offense has seemingly come alive since that contest, and to see the Guardians scrap their way to some runs off of Cole and chase him early in this spot would simply not be surprising at this point.
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Total Bases
If Cole is going to struggle in this spot Jose Ramirez could be a strong target to manage some offense, as Ramirez has owned Cole historically with seven extra-base hits throughout 24 at-bats, and who has slugged .550 versus right-handed pitching this season.
Ramirez has remained in trended into strong form again in October with a .588 slug-rate, and is exactly the type of guy we should expect to come up big for his side as the look to kill off a considerably more high powered Yankees side.
At this point Cleveland are starting to feel like a team of destiny to me, which has been a theme this entire postseason to an extent with these underdog sides.
If the Guardians beat up on Cole the way we are hoping that will likely mean some sort of a lead, coming into a tough bullpen, which should have Emmanuel Clase now available again today.
Quantrill's 4.31 xERA is far from strong, and as I covered before Game One, is vastly overrated from an analytical perspective, and is due for considerable regression. However, we mainly will just need Quantrill to simply not fall apart if we get the Cole legs in this spot, and his actual results are very encouraging.
Quantrill has been on a ridiculous run of dominance at home, pitching to a record of 9-0 with an ERA of 3.29 throughout 112 innings. Since the All-Star break, Quantrill has pitched to an ERA of just 2.94 with a WHIP of 1.11.
If we see a performance anywhere near that in this spot, it should set Cleveland up well to get the win should Cole fall apart.