Padres vs Phillies Prediction, Pick, Projection, Odds for NLCS Game 3

Padres vs Phillies Prediction, Pick, Projection, Odds for NLCS Game 3 article feature image

Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado (Padres)

  • The Padres and Phillies meet tonight in Game 3 of the NLCS.
  • San Diego is a slight favorite with Joe Musgrove on the mound, while Philly throws Ranger Suarez.
  • Continue reading for an expert breakdown and projections for tonight's pivotal playoff game in Philadelphia.

We've reached Game 3 of the NLCS and the series is tied at one after the Padres' bats woke up midway through Game 2. San Diego plated eight runs, five of which came in the fifth inning. San Diego hands the ball to Joe Musgrove and Philadelphia hands the ball to Ranger Suarez in what will be a pivotal game in deciding who wins this series.

Be sure to check out our MLB odds page for up-to-the-minute odds changes across multiple sportsbooks, and our projections page, which helps you find the best value across the board.

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Padres vs. Phillies; 7:37pm ET

Joe Musgrove vs. Ranger Suarez

On paper, the starting pitching matchup definitely favors the Padres. Joe Musgrove over performed a little bit this season, but a 3.27 xERA is still outstanding. Musgrove does a good job of not allowing a lot of hard contact from opposing hitters. His hard-rate allowed was only 32.4% (88th percentile), his average exit velocity allowed is only 84.6 mph (90th percentile) and he's produced a soft contact rate of 19.8%, which is the eighth-best mark in Major League Baseball.

So, you can see why his xBA allowed was only .225 and his xwOBA allowed is only .282.

Musgrove is tough to figure out because he has four pitches (slider, fastball, cutter and curveball) and throws each of them over 19% of the time. It's even tougher when he he's allowing under a .295 xwOBA on all four pitches.

Joe Musgrove, Filthy 83mph Breaking Ball. 😷

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 10, 2022

The Phillies lineup has been hitting the ball well this postseason and they were above average against right-handed pitching this season with a .316 wOBA and a 102 wRC+. However, against right-handed sliders, fastballs, cutters and curveballs, they have a combined .239 xBA, .315 xwOBA and a +25.9 run value.

Musgrove did face Phillies once this season got tagged for seven hits and six earned runs in six innings of work. However, that start was in late June.

Ranger Suarez has been an average starting pitcher this season and there is really no other way to describe him. His xERA is sitting at 3.78, his xFIP is at 3.82 and opposing hitters have a .302 xwOBA against him.

Image via baseball savant

However, if we just look at his numbers from September and October, he's been pretty bad: 4.20 xFIP, .341 wOBA allowed and his HR/9 rate was at 1.42. He's made seven starts since September 1st and has given up a total of 17 earned runs.

Suarez primarily relies on his sinker, changeup and fastball, but his changeup is the only pitch that has been elite. His sinker and fastball are allowing an xBA over .250 and an xwOBA over .330.

He had a really short leash in the divisional round, so who knows if the Phillies will decide to heavily utilize their rested bullpen.

Either way, the Padres offense against left-handed sinkers, changeups and fastballs has a .244 xBA and .320 xwOBA.

I have Musgrove and the Padres projected at -119 for the first five innings, so I think there is a tiny bit of value on the current line of -107, which is available at BetRivers.

Pick: Padres First Five Innings -107

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