Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, September 25.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Rays vs. Orioles, White Sox vs. Yankees, and Red Sox vs. Blue Jays. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, September 25
Rays vs. Orioles
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
RHP Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs. LHP Cade Povich (BAL)
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has been limited to between 70 and 80 pitches in each September start, and I anticipate another short leash in his final start of 2025. He’s been struggling the month anyway (4.96 xFIP, 5.3% K-BB, 100 Pitching+, 4.12 botERA).
Orioles starting pitcher Cade Povich (5.06 ERA, 5.65 xERA) can’t avoid hard contact (47.7% allowed, 4th percentile), and pitching models aren’t high on him either (4.54 botERA, 4.47 OOPSY projected FIP).
The weather report is calling for scattered thunderstorms with high humidity (90% or higher) and winds blowing out toward left-center field, which increased my projected total for the game from 8.4 on a weather-neutral day to 9.1 this Thursday.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to -115)
White Sox vs. Yankees
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +120 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +250 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -140 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -310 |
RHP Davis Martin (CWS) vs. LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY)
The Yankees will continue to play their top lineup as they pursue the AL East crown — they rank third among MLB lineups in wRC+ over the past month.
White Sox starter Davis Martin (5.30 xERA, 9.1% K-BB) can’t avoid hard contact (44.4% allowed, 18th percentile), and the advanced pitching models aren’t high on him (4.45 botERA, 4.44 OOPSY projected FIP).
Yankees starter Carlos Rodon has regressed in the second half of the season (4.13 xFIP, 21.3% K, 10.5% BB since August 1).
The weather report is calling for scattered thunderstorms and high humidity (89% or higher), increasing my projected total for this from 8.45 on a weather-neutral day to 9.15 on Thursday.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -120o / 100u | +110 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -120o / 100u | -130 |
RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) vs. RHP Louis Varland
The Yankees are now tied with the Blue Jays atop the AL East for the first time since July 2. Toronto owns the tiebreaker and only needs to match New York over the final four games to win the division.
The Jays are deploying a bullpen game on Thursday, led by Louis Varland ahead of (likely) Eric Lauer (3.91 xERA, 4.18 xFIP, 17.7% K-BB).
I prefer Toronto’s pitching strategy to Brayan Bello (4.48 xERA, 4.18 xFIP, 9.6% K-BB), who often needs a double-play ball to escape trouble but has seen his ground-ball rate dip six points (49%) from last season (55%).
I also prefer Toronto’s lineup and defense in this matchup — my model projects the Jays as twice as valuable defensively as Boston.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-138 | Play to -150)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, September 25
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- Twins ML (+123 | Play to +115)
- Athletics ML (+102 | Play to -105)
- Blue Jays ML (-138 | Play to -150)
- Rays vs. Orioles Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to -115)
- Twins vs. Rangers Over 7.5 (102 | Play to -110)
- Marlins vs. Phillies Over 9 (-120 | Play to -125)
- Tigers vs. Guardians Under 8 (-115 | Play to 7.5 -105)
- White Sox vs. Yankees Over 8.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
