Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, June 3.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Rockies vs Marlins, Guardians vs Yankees, Phillies vs Blue Jays, and Angels vs Red Sox. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Tuesday, June 3
Rockies vs Marlins
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +154 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -185 |
RHP Chase Dollander (COL) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
Rockies starting pitcher Chase Dollander — and MLB Pipeline’s No. 22 overall prospect — returns from the IL for Tuesday after forearm cramping.
The youngster boasts an explosive fastball (averaging 97.5 MPH) with a plus curveball (124 Stuff+) and cutter (124 Stuff+). He throws his changeup a lot against lefties (20% usage), although it doesn’t grade well (91 Stuff+). Ultimately, Dollander can pitch himself out of jams (34% strikeout rate in the Minors).
He also has significant home-road splits (5.77 xFIP, 4.5% K-BB at Coors; 3.46 xFIP, 19.3% K-BB on the road). Although the sample size is limited, I believe it’s indicative.
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara is struggling (8.47 ERA, 5.31 xERA), but his pitch modeling metrics are improving (99 Pitching+ and 4.16 botERA through the first three starts, 105 Pitching+ and 3.61 botERA over the past three starts).
The stuff is still there (108 Stuff+), but he’s struggling with his command (12.2% walk rate), which is always the last thing to come back after Tommy Joh.
I'm concerned about these two bottom-10 bullpens, but I still project 7.75 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-114 | Play to 8 +100)
Guardians vs Yankees
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8 -105o / -115u | +164 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -105o / -115u | -198 |
RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY)
Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is piecing together his best season since 2022, boasting a 2.84 xERA and 22.5% strikeout minus walk rate.
He’s added a sinker (104 Stuff+), which he throws mainly at left-handed hitters (20% usage against the side) at the expense of his four-seam and slider mix. As a result, his ground-ball rate has jumped significantly (42.4%).
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has taken a step back this season, striking out fewer hitters (19%), walking more (8%) and allowing plenty of barrels (10%). He’s lost some stuff on his fastball (86 Stuff+), and the results have been disastrous (.324 xBA, .580 xSLG, .408 xwOBA).
The Yankees lead all MLB lineups in wRC+ (130), while the Guardians rank 19th (96). The Bronx Bombers will always have the power advantage over Cleveland, making it challenging for the Guardians to win the head-to-head home run battle and neutralizing their defensive advantages.
Although Luke Weaver was placed on the IL, the Yankees' bullpen is strong behind the resurgent Devin Williams, and they’re rested after an off-day on Monday.
I project the Yankees' moneyline at -220.
Pick: Yankees ML (-185 | Play to -200)
Phillies vs Blue Jays
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 9 102o / -122u | -135 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 9 102o / -122u | +114 |
LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs RHP Bowden Francis (TOR)
These two offenses have posted an identical 107 wRC+ this season, but the Blue Jays are in their better split against a left-handed starter (119 wRC+).
Bryce Harper is returning to the lineup on Tuesday after missing the past week. I’m not convinced he’s 100% healthy despite avoiding an IL stint.
The Blue Jays have the better bullpen, ranking second among MLB relief units in xFIP and first in strikeout minus walk rate. The Phillies’ bullpen is typically strong, but they’ve struggled since losing Jose Alvarado to a suspension.
The Blue Jays also have a strong defensive advantage, which should help neutralize the Phillies’ obvious starting pitching advantage — I much prefer Cristopher Sanchez (3.48 xERA, 18.9% K-BB) to Bowden Francis (5.04 ERA, 5.14 xERA, 12.2% K-BB).
That said, Francis has improved lately (3.98 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 16.4% K-BB over the past four starts), and I project the Blue Jays ML at +110.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+135 | Play to +120)
Angels vs Red Sox
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | +120 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | -145 |
LHP Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs RHP Brayan Bello (BOS)
The Red Sox are struggling against southpaws, posting a 95 wRC+ against the side since losing Alex Bregman to injury. They’re projected to only have three above-average hitters against left-handed pitching (Rafael Devers, Rob Refsnyder, Kristian Campbell).
Monday’s starting pitcher, Tyler Anderson, fended off the Red Sox for four innings, and I much prefer Tuesday's starting pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi.
