Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, September 10.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Red Sox vs. Athletics, Mets vs. Phillies, and Reds vs. Padres. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, September 10
Red Sox vs. Athletics
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
LHP Payton Tolle (BOS) vs. RHP Mason Barnett (ATH)
Red Sox southpaw Payton Tolle will make his third MLB start on Wednesday. He has elite stuff (116 Stuff+) but shaky command (84 Location+, 15.8% BB) despite not walking many guys in the minors.
His fastball, cutter, changeup and curveball are all potentially plus offerings, which is uncommon for a 22-year-old. His projected FIP range lands between 3.75 and 4.63 with an average of 4.26.
There is some evidence that Sutter Health Park has mound issues, given its +7% Walk Factor and -2% Strikeout Factor.
Athletics starter Mason Barnett is a level below Tolle, but he has a good slider (130 Stuff+) and changeup (109 Stuff+). Still, his fastball (84 Stuff+) and overall arsenal are subpar (98 Stuff+, 95 Location+, 4.39 botERA).
These are two comparable offenses, but I downgrade the Red Sox significantly without Roman Anthony.
I project the Athletics ML at -102.
Pick: Athletics ML (+115 | Play to +105)
Mets vs. Phillies
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -102o / -118u | +145 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -102o / -118u | -175 |
RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)
With cooler temperatures (69 degrees at first pitch) and winds blowing in (around six MPH), I lowered my projected total by about a half-run compared to a weather-neutral day at Citizens Bank.
Ultimately, I project 7.26 runs for this game.
Additionally, this game triggered a pair of Action Labs betting systems for wind/weather Unders, including this one:
Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez is elite, and he consistently performs better at home than on the road.
Meanwhile, both bullpens are well rested and grade out as two of the top-five best relief units in baseball (by advanced pitch modeling metrics).
Pick: Under 8 (-115 | Play to 7.5 +100)
Reds vs. Padres
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (SDP)
Reds starter Andrew Abbott has struggled since the beginning of August (5.14 ERA, 4.16 xFIP), but his career-high strikeout rate and career-low walk rate suggest better days are ahead.
While Abbott’s fly-ball tilt and weak-contact generation often result in home runs (career 1.31 HR/9 allowed), this is a good matchup for his style, as the Padres rank among the bottom two MLB lineups in home runs and ISO.
San Diego’s bats are also worse against lefties.
Meanwhile, Padres starter Nick Pivetta looks fatigued. Perhaps the elbow injury he sustained in Spring training is catching up to him.
I project the Reds ML at +123.
Pick: Reds ML (+150 | Play to +135)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 10
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Athletics ML (+115 | Play to +105)
- Reds ML (+150 | Play to +135)
- Mets vs. Phillies Under 8 (-115 | Play to 7.5 +100)
